Brisk Wind Advisory 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

957 
FZAK52 PAFC 060029
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061300-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL FRI AFTERNOON THEN HEAD INLAND ACROSS THE
SEWARD PENINSULA EARLY SAT MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL TRACK TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THEN HEAD INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-061300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-061300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-061300-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-061300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-061300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-061300-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BECOMING S 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-061300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-061300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-061300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-061300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-061300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-061300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-061300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-061300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-061300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-061300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-061300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 PM AKST THU MAR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO
35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SE WIND 40 KT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKST WED MAR 4 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WATER IMAGERY VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF
WITH A WEAK TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WITH A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH EVIDENT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS. LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. LOW CLOUDS(STRATUS) WAS OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF COOK
INLET...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG UNDER A WEAK INVERSION WAS EVIDENT ACROSS
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW OVER THE GULF...WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. A
LOWER 990S LOW WAS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTHWEST OF THE
GULF OF ANADYR (RUSSIA). A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA...JUST EAST OF THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS...TO OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS OPEN CELL CU BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF
COLD ADVECTION.

 &&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL TODAY. TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE MAINLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES TO SHOW A MUCH SHARPER
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
JET WITH A MORE ROBUST VORTICITY FIELD. WHILE MODELS DIFFER IN QPF
AMOUNTS...THE PATTERN AND TIMING ARE SIMILAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND A WEAK TEMPERATURE
INVERSION JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE ANOTHER SET UP FOR AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND AREA WATERS. FOG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF IS SPINNING SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PULLING A FEW SHOWERS INTO
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND ALONG THE COAST. THIS WEAK PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN A PATTERN CHANGE
BEGINS AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE GAINS MOMENTUM AFTER MIDNIGHT
PUSHING ACROSS TO THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GULF FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE OF ENERGY BRINGING
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. THIS SYNOPTIC
FEATURE WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT WEATHER
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS WILL
BRING A SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
THE COASTLINE. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BY FRIDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND COINCIDING WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE GALE FORCE LOW WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTON SOUND BEFORE MOVING INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INLAND ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS EVENING. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY
MORNING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE A WEATHER FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH NEAR SHEMYA ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM FORCE LOW POSITIONED
ALONG THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...THEN SPREADING INTO THE CENTER BERING
SEA. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WESTERN BERING
SEA...DESTABILIZING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND HELPING TO MIX DOWN
STORM-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY EVENING. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA OVERALL AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO A
WIDE SWATH OF MAINLAND ALASKA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG POLAR JET SPANS FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING TRACKS INLAND NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AK ON SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ALSO
USHER IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE OVERALL STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS TIME
PERIOD IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING...WHERE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN...WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS IT INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS SOUTH OF THE
BERING. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING...WHICH WOULD HELP TO RE-
ENFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CB