Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE MAINLY AROUND COLD AIR AND 10 TO 20
MPH WINDS AND THE RESULTANT WIND CHILL VALUES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT IS SNOWING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SO FAR...REPORTS
COMING IN WHERE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING THE MOST HIGHLIGHT 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW HAS FALLEN...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 6 HOURS. SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. AS SUCH...THE WINT WX ADV ACROSS THAT AREA WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. IN FACT...PLANNING TO KEEP ALL THREE
SEGMENTS OF THE WINT WX ADV EXPIRING AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
TEMPERATURES ARE WIDE-RANGING...WITH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO UP TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. WIND SPEEDS ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES FOR THE MOST
PART...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS THIS
HOUR.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY...SNOW WILL BE PRETTY MUCH DONE ACROSS THE CWA BY
APPX 8PM CST. AFTER THE SNOW EVENT FINISHES UP...SHOULD SEE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOP AND A 5 TO 15 MPH NORTHERLY WIND
OVERNIGHT. FRESH SNOW PLUS CLEAR SKIES AND ARCTIC COLD AIR MEANS
THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF FORECAST ZONES WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS. SO...WILL HAVE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT AT THE TAIL END OF THE WINT WX
ADVISORY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SUBTLE LITTLE SPEED MAX
/SHORT-WAVE WORKING SEWD THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE...INDUCING
ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE WEST RIVER COUNTIES OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT -> WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT DROPPING ANOTHER ROUND OF -20C TO -27C 925HPA AIR
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ALL THE WHILE A 1055+HPA
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING DOWN INTO THE REGION. THAT IS A VERY
STRONG HIGH CENTER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IT WILL GENERATE
WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA IS ONGOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING SUGGESTS WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE NET RESULT WILL BE WIND CHILL WARNING
CRITERIA WIND CHILLS /35 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER/ THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING IN THE NEAR FUTURE FOR THIS.
FINALLY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THIS ONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
POSSIBLY GLANCING THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA BRIEFLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO FAR NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
BLOWING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS
EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...WILL NOT MENTION BLOWING SNOW
ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.

MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED THE THREAT OF SNOW ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE GFS SHOWING QPF SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THE LATEST SUPERBLEND POP GUIDANCE IS
BASICALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
     DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
     LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 PM CST MON JAN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     SNOW             ABERDEEN                45.47N  98.48W
01/05/2015  M2.7 INCH        BROWN              SD   NWS OFFICE

            FINAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500010

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST MON JAN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     SNOW             ASTORIA                 44.56N  96.55W
01/05/2015  E4.0 INCH        DEUEL              SD   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500011

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1145 PM CST MON JAN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     SNOW             MANSFIELD               45.24N  98.56W
01/05/2015  E4.5 INCH        SPINK              SD   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT ESTIMATING 4 TO 5 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500012

TMT