Wind Chill Advisory 10, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS WEST AND FLURRIES EAST. RADARS AND OBS UPSTREAM STILL
INDICATE POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN EMBEDDED
ENERGY IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH A FLURRY
MENTION EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. CLOUD COVER FORECAST IS
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN REGARDS TO TIMING THE DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
WELL. COLDER AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. 925 MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND -20
C ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
BE MAINTAINED AS WELL AND WIND CHILL VALUES FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. SINCE THE NUMBERS ARE VERY
MARGINAL AND IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT FROM
TOMORROW NIGHTS WIND CHILLS...HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY WIND
CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT AND WILL AWAIT THE LARGER SURGE OF COLD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THAT TIME...925 MB
TEMPS TANK EVEN LOWER AS THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. APPARENT T GRIDS HAVE WIND
CHILL VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 25 BELOW TO CLOSE TO 35 BELOW ZERO OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT STILL
HAVE TIME FOR LATER SHIFTS TO NAIL DOWN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS AGREE WELL EARLY ON AND THEN DIVERGE LATE IN THE LONG
TERM. THE EC AND GEM AGREE WELL WITH THE GFS QUITE DIFFERENT LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT OUT WEST
PUSHING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THUS...AFTER A COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...MILDER PACIFIC AIR WILL PUSH
IN. THIS WARM AIR OVERRIDING THE RETREATING COLD AIR WILL BRING
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR
RISING. FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY FOR HIGHS AS TO HOW FAR THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES EAST BEFORE THE CAA NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN. AFTER A
MUCH BELOW NORMAL DAY ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA RANGING FROM THE MID 20S EAST TO THE
MID 40S SOUTHWEST. AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE CWA. THE GEM AND EC SHOW AN OVER 1050MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHING IN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EC WAS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER AT 850MB THEN THE GFS BY 12Z SUNDAY. WAA
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ON
MONDAY SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CAA LOW VFR STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 35 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF CAA. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS WELL
ON THE SFC NORTHWEST FLOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO LEFT CIGS
VFR FOR NOW EVERYWHERE BUT KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
124 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     SNOW             ABERDEEN                45.47N  98.48W
02/17/2015  M1.0 INCH        BROWN              SD   NWS OFFICE

            VERY LITTLE WATER IN THIS LIGHT FLUFFY INCH OF SNOW

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500144

NWS ABR