Special Weather Statement, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST.
FOR TNT WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE
LLJ KICKS IN LATE.  THERE COULD BE ISOLD CONVECTION YET EARLY THIS
EVENING GIVEN WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA SO WILL ALSO KEEP
MENTION OF THAT.  FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE.  THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS AND HELP TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN EJECTS ENE ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR NOW IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL FORM OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND THEN ADVECT TOWARD CENTRAL/SC
SOUTH DAKOTA TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHER NORTH A BACK DOOR SFC
HIGH WILL START TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT AND SHOULD BEGINNING
PUSHING THE LL BOUNDARY SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.  TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE OUT NEAR NORMAL ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BE A BIT
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH ONLY THE DETERMINISTIC GFS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AROUND MID
WEEK. WILL IGNORE THIS SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING AS IT IS TOO
DRASTIC AN OUTLIER.  THUS...ANTICIPATE A DRY FORECAST. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...PEAKING BETWEEN
+13 AND +16C...OR ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO.
THUS...ANTICIPATE SEEING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE
FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-080915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
411 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER TODAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WHILE THERE WILL BE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
518 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

SDZ016-034-036-072300-
SULLY SD-POTTER SD-HYDE SD-
518 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HYDE...NORTHEASTERN
SULLY AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 518 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AGAR...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ONIDA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AGAR...COTTONWOOD LAKE NEAR AGAR AND STONE LAKE.

LAT...LON 4474 10015 4487 10020 4495 9960 4473 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 264DEG 25KT 4482 10000

PARKIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
713 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

SDZ016-017-080100-
FAULK SD-POTTER SD-
713 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FAULK AND EASTERN POTTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 713 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GETTYSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GETTYSBURG...LEBANON...SENECA AND TOLSTOY.

LAT...LON 4497 10000 4516 10003 4524 9951 4491 9944
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 267DEG 27KT 4505 9991

PARKIN