Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. UPDATES ARE
OUT. SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES HEADED INTO THE CWA TODAY...THE FIRST EARLY
THIS AM ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A
NARROW RIBBON OF 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 40 TO 50KTS MOSTLY STRAIGHT
LINE SHEAR...ALREADY OBSERVING WEAK ROTATION AND SPLITTING
SIGNATURES ON RADAR. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW STORM MOTION. CAMS
SUGGEST CONTINUED INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A
PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE GIVES US A SECOND
BOUT OF CONVECTION. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR FRIDAY...A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE FOR LATE
SATURDAY...BUT TIMING MAY BE TOO LATE TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. A SURGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THAT WAVE WILL BRING SOME HOTTER AIR TO WEST RIVER AND THE
MISSOURI VALLEY FOR SATURDAY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NO NOTABLE CHANGES FORTHCOMING IN THE OUT PERIODS THIS MORNING.
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BOOKEND THE PERIOD...WITH DECENT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT STILL SEEMS TO BE
CHARACTERIZED AS WNW FLOW...BUT DURING THE OUT PERIODS...SPLIT FLOW
IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST COAST...WITH THE TWO JET-LEVEL AIR
STREAMS CONVERGING/DOING BATTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS INTRODUCES A GOODLY AMOUNT OF LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE/CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR THE TIME BEING...TEMPERATURE TRENDS STILL APPEAR TO BE WARM TO
START...THEN COOLING DOWN MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE WARMTH RETURNS BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WHILE CONVECTION IS OVER/IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS THIS MORNING/TODAY...EXPECT VFR TO BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE. PREVAILING VFR SHOULD BE BACK IN PLACE AT
KMBG/KPIR BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...KATY IS PRECIP FREE
AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
PRECIP CHANCES AND PREVAILING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RAMP UP. MVFR
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER KABR...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING CAN INFLUENCE IT. ALSO...AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATER TODAY...SO WILL SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-030815-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
315 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE RISK IS MAINLY FOR
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. AGAIN...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CONNELLY