Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

JUST A REFRESH OF POPS/WX NEEDED THIS MORNING FOR A FEW NEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS ACTIVITY...PLUS REMNANT DYING SHOWERS FROM EARLIER MORNING
CONVECTION...SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF THE CWA BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS
WITH IT...LEAVING MOST OF THE CWA IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHEREBY LOW LEVEL WAA AND INSOLATION SHOULD BE
ABLE TO NUDGE THE MERCURY UP AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AT THAT POINT...ALL ATTENTION WILL BE REFOCUSED ONTO WHAT IS
SUPPOSED TO BE THE NEXT ROUND OF NORTHERN PLAINS STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT WORKING IN FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS /CAM OR OTHERWISE/ SUGGESTED STORM MODE
LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH END NATURE OF AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE
ENERGY POTENTIAL AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD START OUT AS A HANDFUL OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS /LRG HL...DMG WNDS AND ISO'D TORS/ OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A LARGE...STRONG WIND-PRODUCING
SQUALL LINE /WITH OR WITHOUT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ OVER
THIS CWA. STILL WAITING ON THE EVENT TO ACTUALLY UNFOLD BEFORE
RUBBING-STAMPING SPECIFICS FOR TIMING/COVERAGE.

ALSO...AT THIS POINT...THE BAR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS SET AT
"HEAVY RAIN" MENTION IN THE GRIDS/ZFP. PWATS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THIS EVENT...30 DAY PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIP DOES
STILL HAVE SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT OR ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WE'RE IN A DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SLIGHT RISK
AREA...1 AND 3 HR FFG IS AT OR BELOW 2 INCHES ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE WESTERN CWA...AND THE 00Z NSSL WRF IS PREDICTING PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN CWA WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH/HOUR. AT THIS POINT...CONSIDERING THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ACROSS THE CWA...FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 212.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

A STORM COMPLEX NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER
SOME OF OUR CWA WILL GET CLIPPED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S...NEAR 70
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND RISING 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP THE REGION SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME
WEAKER ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IF STORMS COULD DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEY
WOULD BE IN A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH
OUR CWA. ALOFT...A JET STREAK WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
WELL ALIGNED...STEEP LAPSE RATES...50+ KTS OF 0-6 SHEAR...STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HODOGRAPHS BECOME
MORE STRAIGHT LINE BEHIND THE FRONT...AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST
INITIAL SUPERCELLS FORM INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS MAINTAINED AN ENHANCED RISK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. HIGH POPS AND SEVERE WORDING HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM. WITH THIS PATTERN COMES WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW
POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A FLAT RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A
CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD SO CONFIDENCE LOW ON ANY PARTICULAR
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVING A BROADBRUSH APPROACH FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  LATER TONIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL. TIMING OF THIS SQUALL LINE LOOKS BEST
BETWEEN 3Z TO 8Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 12Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-201000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
345 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...OF MORE CONCERN IS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BE PRIME FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT.

SERR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

SDZ033-035-036-048-051-191530-
LYMAN SD-STANLEY SD-HYDE SD-BUFFALO SD-HUGHES SD-
944 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HYDE...NORTHWESTERN
BUFFALO...NORTH CENTRAL LYMAN...SOUTHEASTERN HUGHES AND SOUTHEASTERN
STANLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

AT 944 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JOE CREEK REC AREA...OR 14 MILES WEST OF LOWER BRULE...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOWER BRULE...FORT THOMPSON...JOE CREEK REC AREA...STEPHAN...WEST
BEND REC AREA...CEDAR CREEK REC AREA AND LAKE SHARPE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4406 9995 4425 10001 4438 9948 4407 9939
TIME...MOT...LOC 1444Z 259DEG 33KT 4414 9985

LUECK

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