Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ARE EXITING THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME LIGHT PRECIP LEFT ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING. WEST RIVER THERE IS SOME CU
DEVELOPING IN THE CLEARING WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING.

A SFC TROUGH HAS SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SD
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF
PIERRE. THE CLOUDS MAY ACT TO ONCE AGAIN SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGHS.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODELS ON PLACEMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT. IN
GENERAL TERMS WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD COURTESY OF THE FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
BUT WED NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

DEPARTING UPPER LOW CONTINUES INTO EASTERN CANADA REPLACED BY A
LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS IS MAINLY A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE REGIME WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION. WILL SEE AN INITIAL COLD SURGE THURSDAY...THE DEGREE
OF WHICH STILL VARIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN +4C AND +8C RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A MUCH DEEPER/LONGER LIVED COOL AIRMASS JUST TO OUR EAST.
AS THE RIDGE FOLDS OVER...BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE PULL IN A WARMER
MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KPIR. THESE STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
453 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-081000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
453 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 /353 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14
COULD BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
607 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

SDZ033-045-048-072345-
JONES SD-LYMAN SD-STANLEY SD-
607 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JONES...SOUTH
CENTRAL STANLEY AND NORTHWESTERN LYMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT/545
PM MDT/...

AT 606 PM CDT /506 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF WENDTE...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF MURDO...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAN METRE AND WENDTE.

LAT...LON 4398 10074 4415 10085 4440 10047 4412 10026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 259DEG 16KT 4411 10062

PARKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
645 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             FORT PIERRE             44.36N 100.38W
09/07/2015  M1.75 INCH       STANLEY            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500803

LUECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             PIERRE                  44.37N 100.32W
09/07/2015  M1.00 INCH       HUGHES             SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1500804

LUECK