Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
635 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER. A FEW STRONGER
CELLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WHITE RIVER DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LLJ. THESE STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
WITH LITTLE TO NO PCPN OVER THE CWA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIAL OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE MU CAPES VALUES WILL EXCEED 2500 J/KG. A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE THERE IS EVEN A
TORNADO THREAT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE REAL SUPPORTIVE. THESE
STORMS SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY NICE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT IN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING WEAK SFC TROUGHS
AND/OR NOCTURNAL LLJS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED
APPEARS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN A SFC LOW BEGINS TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. COUPLED WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL HELP TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE THIS SYSTEM HAS A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD MISS KATY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND MOVE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING KMBG/KPIR/KABR. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-100915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
411 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
238 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

SDZ048-090815-
LYMAN SD-
238 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYMAN COUNTY UNTIL
315 AM CDT...

AT 236 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HAMILL...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINNER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 4366 9962 4368 9947 4365 9945 4366 9940
      4366 9937 4363 9935 4357 9933 4353 9928
      4350 9929 4350 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 266DEG 34KT 4356 9974

SD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
308 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

SDZ005-010-017-090900-
MCPHERSON SD-FAULK SD-EDMUNDS SD-
308 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EDMUNDS...NORTHERN FAULK AND
SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 307 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW
TOWN CORNER TO NEAR BURKMERE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IPSWICH...ROSCOE...CRESBARD...CHELSEA...DEVOE...ONAKA...WETONKA...
LONG LAKE COLONY...DEERFIELD COLONY...NORTH SCATTERWOOD LAKE...
GRASSLAND COLONY...BURKMERE...MINA...PEMBROOK COLONY...BRENTWOOD
COLONY...CRAVENS CORNER...SOUTH SCATTERWOOD LAKE...LOYALTON...
PLAINVIEW COLONY AND NORBECK.

LAT...LON 4569 9876 4510 9873 4502 9948 4551 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0807Z 242DEG 33KT 4564 9927 4503 9927

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

SDZ005-006-010-091000-
MCPHERSON SD-BROWN SD-EDMUNDS SD-
359 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BROWN...EASTERN
EDMUNDS AND SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 359 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF LEOLA TO
SOUTH SCATTERWOOD LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IPSWICH...WARNER...WETONKA...MINA...RICHMOND LAKE REC AREA...CRAVENS
CORNER...LONG LAKE COLONY...DEERFIELD COLONY...MINA LAKE REC AREA...
PLAINVIEW COLONY...PEMBROOK COLONY AND NORTH SCATTERWOOD LAKE.

LAT...LON 4569 9868 4528 9846 4525 9891 4555 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0859Z 259DEG 16KT 4569 9907 4520 9877

WISE