Alert archive / South Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Aberdeen, SD

July 12, 2015Buffalo County, Hughes County, Lyman County, South Dakota

NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2015, 11:57 PM CDT for Buffalo County, Hughes County, Lyman County, South Dakota. It was in force for 63 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2015, 11:57 PM CDT (04:57 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2015, 1:00 AM CDT
In force: 63 min
Issued by: NWS Aberdeen, SD
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Buffalo County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Lyman County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 179 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 305 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 812 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2625 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 54 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 9:29 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 9:29 PM CDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
929 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

A COMPLEX PATTERN IS IN PLAY TONIGHT...WITH THE ABERDEEN CWA IN
BETWEEN MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION.

THE MAIN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. STILL SOME LINGERING STORMS IN SE ND THIS
EVENING THAT COULD CLIP TRAVERSE COUNTY...BUT THEY ARE WEAKENING.
THE TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE 2 MN COUNTIES BUT WILL
PROBABLY BE CANCELLED SOON.

TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE STRONGER JET IS PUSHING STORMS RAPIDLY
THROUGH WESTERN SD TO THE EAST. THEY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...BUT
WILL UPDATE TO BOOST POPS IN CENTRAL SD.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST...A FAIRLY ROBUST FRONT/BOUNDARY IS
TRIGGERING STORMS IN ND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NE SD
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

WAVE CURRENTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY LINE STALLED
ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS STILL LOOK TO ALL
LINE UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR...SO WILL KEEP POPS AND
MENTION OF SEVERE UNCHANGED. DUE TO DEEP MIXING WEST RIVER THERE MAY
ALSO BE AN ELEVATED STORM OUT THAT WAY AS WELL...WITH BASES ABOVE
10KFT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD PASS INTO MINNESOTA RATHER
QUICKLY THOUGH...WITH STORMS WEST RIVER DIABATICALLY DRIVEN...SO
THIS EVENING SHOULD TREND TOWARDS CALM WEATHER.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP US DRY TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD INDUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SD/WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MOISTURE COMES IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES EAST. GFS PROFILES SUGGEST CIGS AOA 10KFT SO NOTHING MORE
THAN ACCAS SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 90. TUESDAY WILL BE THE MILDER OF THE DAYS DUE TO COOLER
850MB TEMPERATURES BACKDOORING INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THOSE
NUMBERS OF COURSE...DEPEND ON HOW THICK THE SMOKE FROM CANADA GETS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FAVOR A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA. S/W RIDGING TO
START THE PERIOD LOOKS TO GET FLATTENED EARLY...WITH CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY COME THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS A LITTLE LACKING.  BECAUSE OF A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY POPS ARE SPRINKLED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
OUT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 3:48 PM CDT, 8 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-132100-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
348 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM CDT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-132100-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
348 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WEST RIVER MAY MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CONNELLY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 6:06 PM CDT, 5 hours 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
506 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015

SDZ033-122345-
STANLEY SD-
506 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN STANLEY COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

AT 506 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRLEY...OR 26 MILES SOUTH OF EAGLE BUTTE...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MISSION RIDGE AND SANSARC.

LAT...LON 4453 10115 4469 10115 4469 10114 4471 10114
      4472 10068 4447 10067 4451 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 272DEG 38KT 4462 10124

CONNELLY

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 10:32 PM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1032 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

SDZ033-045-130415-
JONES SD-STANLEY SD-
1032 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN STANLEY AND JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT/1015 PM MDT/...

AT 1032 PM CDT /932 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MIDLAND...OR 19 MILES EAST OF
PHILIP...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURDO...DRAPER...OKATON...CHANTLER CREEK RECREATION AREA...VAN
METRE...WENDTE...HAYES...BUNKER...CAPA...BROWN CHURCH AND SANSARC.

LAT...LON 4381 10090 4383 10093 4382 10097 4384 10096
      4384 10103 4386 10103 4385 10106 4417 10105
      4417 10110 4458 10113 4449 10062 4373 10035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 266DEG 38KT 4412 10128

SCARLETT

Local storm report, Jul 12, 11:18 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 12, 11:49 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 10:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ABR	Jones, Stanley	43 min
Jul 12, 10:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Jones, Stanley	49 min
Jul 12, 11:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Hughes, Jones, Lyman, Stanley	39 min
Jul 13, 12:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Buffalo, Hand	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.