Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Albuquerque, NM

105 
WWUS55 KABQ 290153
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
753 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

NMC059-290215-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-150529T0215Z/
UNION-
753 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY...

AT 753 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLAYTON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAYTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 10315 3636 10349 3648 10343 3653 10326
      3650 10304 3641 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 303DEG 13KT 3639 10324 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GUYER

846 
WWUS55 KABQ 290214
SVSABQ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
814 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

NMC059-290224-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-150529T0215Z/
UNION-
814 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 815 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL
HAIL....GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3623 10315 3636 10349 3648 10343 3653 10326
      3650 10304 3641 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 303DEG 13KT 3639 10324 

$$

GUYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
620 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

NMZ501>540-291200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
620 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATER SATURDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             3 NE PORTALES           34.21N 103.31W
05/28/2015  M1.00 INCH       ROOSEVELT          NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502232

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
626 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             1 E SEDAN               36.14N 103.11W
05/28/2015  M2.00 INCH       UNION              NM   TWITTER FEED

            HEN EGG SIZE HAIL FROM 455 TO 505PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502233

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
633 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             2 SW PORTALES           34.16N 103.37W
05/28/2015  M1.75 INCH       ROOSEVELT          NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502234

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
635 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             PORTALES                34.18N 103.34W
05/28/2015  M1.50 INCH       ROOSEVELT          NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502235

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
637 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             PORTALES                34.18N 103.34W
05/28/2015  M1.75 INCH       ROOSEVELT          NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502236

TRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
649 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

NMZ536-538-290115-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
649 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHAVES AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

AT 648 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELKINS...OR 39 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TATUM...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL CHAVES
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.

FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

LAT...LON 3356 10366 3357 10372 3354 10372 3347 10389
      3364 10400 3396 10343 3373 10327
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 283DEG 20KT 3358 10388

43