Severe Thunderstorm Warning 373, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A DYNAMIC DAY IS UNFOLDING ONCE AGAIN AS WAVES OF RAIN AND LCL
SEVERE STORMS SHIFT QUICKLY NE ACROSS THE STATE. THE 1ST WAVE OF
PRECIP IS SLIDING FROM WESTERN NM INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A
GAP WIND AROUND KABQ MAY GET BRIEFLY STRONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS
BEFORE THE RAIN/STORMS MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL. LOW CLOUDS BLW 010
AND PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN NM IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFT SUNRISE...
BUT BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY MORE SHRA/TSRA. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND INTENSE WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN AND TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
NM BTWN 21Z AND 08Z WITH SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS TO VSBY/CIGS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KROW TO KTCC.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...344 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO MUCH OF THE PLAINS. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS...WITH THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON ABOVE TEN THOUSAND
FEET IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
AFTER BRIEFLY QUITER WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOMEWHAT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GULF OF CA AND ACROSS AZ
TODAY...THEN TO PICKUP SPEED THURSDAY AS IT EJECTS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS ACROSS CO. MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON QPF AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH UPWARDS OF 0.75 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS COMMON ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...0.25 TO 0.5 INCH AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST
AND WIDESPREAD 2 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS IN COUNTIES ALONG NEW MEXICOS
EASTERN BORDER WITH TX. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN THAT ALREADY FELL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY THERE IS A STRONG RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NOTORIOUSLY POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS
LIKE PORTALES...CLOVIS...TUCUMCARI AND CLAYTON. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PLAINS LOCATIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL ALSO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS...WHERE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER COOL. THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL
KEEP PRECIP SHOWERY...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF NM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY THEN FOCUS OVER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 11 KFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
EVENT WILL LAY THE SNOWPACK FOUNDATION FOR THE 2015-2016 SEASON.

PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN NM. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR
10 KFT. LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND WEAKER MIXING WILL DETERIORATE VENT
RATES INTO THE POOR/FAIR CATEGORY. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY
HIGH WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY IS TRENDING COOLER WITH MORE SHOWERS ON TAP AS A SECONDARY
UPPER WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NM. MEANWHILE...A WIND SHIFT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT HOWEVER
AMOUNTS ARE TRENDING HIGHER AGAIN.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND
OVER THE STATE. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WHILE MIN TEMPS
STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ZONAL FLOW INCREASING ALOFT WILL
HELP FAVOR SOME DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. YET ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE COOLER AIR...GUSTY WINDS...RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-530>540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513-514.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

NMZ501>540-221200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
552 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SOCORRO TO QUAY COUNTIES...
WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. FURTHER...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN
TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY ABOVE 10000
FEET IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY
IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER MESSAGE FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1029 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     HAIL             13 SE TOLAR             34.30N 103.79W
10/21/2015  M1.75 INCH       ROOSEVELT          NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502447

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     HAIL             21 S TAIBAN             34.14N 104.00W
10/21/2015  M1.50 INCH       DE BACA            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502448

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1040 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     HAIL             5 E TOLAR               34.44N 103.85W
10/21/2015  M1.75 INCH       ROOSEVELT          NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502449

KJ

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