Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
607 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ON TAP WITH WIDESPREAD -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE. GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KABQ AND KSAF. THE AWW FOR
KABQ IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THIS EVENING AS WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO NEAR 40KTS. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN EXPLOSION OF
STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AFT 03Z. THIS WILL
CONGEAL INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THRU MIDNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR...WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR EXPECTED
WHEN THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER STORMS SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. MVFR CIGS
WILL RISE AFTER SUNRISE IN THE EAST...WHILE FARTHER WEST SKIES
CLEAR THRU SUNRISE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TOMORROW ALL AREAS WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE STATE. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO
TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE BIG
STORY WILL BE THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER EASTERN NM. A BIT
OF BREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IN THE
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NW AND SE NM THIS PM.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. TOUGH CALL ON
A FLOOD WATCH BUT DECIDED COVERAGE TOO ISOLATED. MAY RECONSIDER
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE NEAR THE
TX BORDER. THE BACK DOOR FRONT IN THE E HAS PUSHED INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

RAIN WILL END FROM W TO E TUESDAY AND WE WILL HAVE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE EAST.

NEXT STORM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE CA COAST MIDWEEK AND BRING MORE
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING IN THE E WED NIGHT...SPREADING W
THURSDAY THEN IN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE E THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX BORDER DURING ALL
THIS TIME. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WETTER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY EAST. THE CONTRAST IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND RH WILL BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS
THE WEST WITH EPISODES OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES.

CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL USHER IN PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INITIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN BUT THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF NEW MEXICO WITH THE
WEAKENING JET MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR.
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST. WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION PERSISTS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AGAIN WITH CHANCES OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTREME EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL STEADILY DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON
RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND WEST AND
CENTRAL ZONES...BUT A BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES REMAIN DRY WITH MIN VALUES BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY AND
APPROACHES NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WILL AGAIN
FAVOR THE EAST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE WEST REMAINS DRY. BY FRIDAY...
THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO BRINGING IN ANOTHER DRY
SLOT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY AIR MIX TO THE
SURFACE. HIGH HAINES OF SIX IS FORECAST FOR THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASES IN AREA ON FRIDAY. THUS...CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF RH AND
WIND ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOUTH
OF ALBUQUERQUE. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT MOISTURE AND GREEN UP OF
FUELS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEK. VENTILATION
WILL BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE
VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR. POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

NMZ501>540-191130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
520 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS AN LEVEL UPPER LOW APPROACHES NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TODAY...STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES LATER IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE TO CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SNOWFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT
STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING
THE HASHTAG N M W X.

33

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