Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW OVER
UT AND UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED SWD INTO ARIZONA. UPPER LOW TO PASS
THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z SAT BUT TROUGH WILL REMAIN AS A
SECOND STRONGER LOW SLIDES SWD FROM THE PAC NW. LOW LEVEL SELY
WINDS TO PERSIST THRU 03/18Z CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING AFT 03/03Z. GENERALLY S-SW LOW LEVEL WINDS RGV WWD XCP
AN EAST WIND MAY ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO SEEP INTO KSAF AREA AFT
03/06Z. CONVECTION DUE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL/NE
NE TO PERSIST THROUGH 03/06Z...WITH ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS
WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIG WEATHER CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY. THREE FACTORS ARE INVOLVED
WITH THESE CHANGES. THE FIRST IS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM
THE GREAT BASIN. IT HAS DRAWN LOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE EC AND NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD TURN SEVERE. THE SECOND WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT STRENGTHENS OVER CA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE THIRD WEATHER FACTOR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF MARTY. ALL OF THESE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND COOLER
WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD WIND SHEAR AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF
THIS PM INTO TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO
TURN SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE THE STORMS
WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...BACKWARD PROPAGATING STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF STORMS WITH REPEATED HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THUS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OVER CA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOIST AIR NORTH INTO NM WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF MARTY WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE SATURATED
GROUND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ABSORB ALL THE WATER.

PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND THEN SHIFT TO THE WESTERN HALF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN
BEST CHANCES WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE EAST IN THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD. MODELS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH
THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY FROM NM. THE GFS IS FASTER...BUT
HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MOST DAYS THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

MAIN STORY HERE IS AFTER RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST
WEEK AND EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES MOST OF SEPTEMBER...A
CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS BROUGHT STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...CREATING SPOTTY RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. SEE NO REASON TO END THE RED FLAG WARNING EARLY...SO
IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL 7PM TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THAT MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL AND STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINS MAINLY OVER THE SANGRES AS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BACKWARD
PROPAGATING STORMS. CONVECTION WILL ALTER FORECASTED WIND
SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF OUTFLOW WINDS
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT FORECASTING IT NOW...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SATURDAY...A TRAILING
LOBE OF ENERGY WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GOING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE TREND WILL BE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHER MIN/MAX HUMIDITIES...AND WEAKER SURFACE WINDS.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
WITH A WIDE AREA OF POOR VENT RATES. AGAIN...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
WINDS COULD ALTER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS COME SUNDAY
MORNING...NOTABLY THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  IT
WILL ALSO IMPACT THE WESTWARD PUSH OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED THAT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAW SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO AND
CREATE MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS. STORMS SHOULD FOCUS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM MONDAY...AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO START SEEING LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES BY
THE THIRD DAY OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN
THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING BELOW NORMAL EVERYWHERE...BEFORE A SLIGHT
REBOUND TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WITH EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF
EASTERN NM WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
GOOD ON MONDAY LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA.  SPOTTIER FAIR TO POOR
CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW IN ITS PROGRESSION EAST. THE RESULT IS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW REACHING THE SW PART OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
GENERALLY TRACKING SE INTO THURSDAY.  THIS WILL SHIFT THE
PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO EASTERN NM WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE LOW LINGERS TO OUR SOUTH
INTO THE WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR GRADUAL DRYING AS WE GO
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ101-105.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015

NMZ501>540-031200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
558 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT PERIODS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GUYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015

NMZ512-514-515-030015-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
541 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORA AND
NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 540 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TERERRO...OR 18 MILES EAST OF SANTA FE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COWLES AROUND 545 PM MDT.
  GASCON...MORPHY LAKE STATE PARK...LEDOUX AND TIERRA MONTE AROUND
615 PM MDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SOUTH CARMEN...MONTE
APLANADO...MANUELITAS AND ROCIADA.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
E.V. LONG CAMPGROUND...EL PORVENIR CAMPGROUND...IRON GATE
CAMPGROUND...WILLOW CREEK CAMPGROUND...BERT CLANCY WILDLIFE AREA...
MORA RIVER PICNIC AREA...AND MORPHY LAKE STATE PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL ON ROADS CAN CREATE VERY SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 10523 3588 10524 3586 10521 3587 10518
      3586 10516 3584 10518 3584 10521 3582 10522
      3582 10521 3560 10555 3573 10573 3604 10549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 224DEG 23KT 3573 10563

SHOEMAKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
635 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015

NMZ529-030100-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
635 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 634 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VILLANUEVA...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF LAS
VEGAS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. A SECOND STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LOS MONTOYAS.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VILLANUEVA...CHAPELLE...SAN AGUSTIN...SENA AND LOS MONTOYAS.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SMALL HAIL ON ROADS CAN CREATE VERY SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 10481 3544 10484 3543 10484 3537 10494
      3538 10495 3536 10496 3521 10521 3521 10529
      3527 10532 3526 10535 3530 10540 3530 10542
      3558 10511
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 218DEG 37KT 3531 10528

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