Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS GENLY FROM THE RGV WESTWARD WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY...AND ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS IN THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN PLAINS AFT
06Z. SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DROP INTO THE ERN PLAINS AFT 18/15Z BUT
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON NW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THEREAFTER...A DRYING TREND WILL
COMMENCE. MUCH FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BACK DOOR FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATER IN THE
WEEK...A SLOW INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF NM. 35 TO 40KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND CAPE UP TO
2500 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE NE PLAINS. A JET MAX WILL ALSO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AND FOCUS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS MOST OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY
EXITING NM BY MID EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING IN FROM SE CO.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN SOME OF THE LOWEST
DEWPOINTS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS THE NW SINCE THE SPRING.
MEANWHILE...THE BACK DOOR SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE
PLAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES...BUT THE DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL LIMIT COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MOISTURE IT
BRINGS WITH IT SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE RGV.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOME OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALSO
MIX OUT. CONTINUE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER...MAY
YIELD A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT. MOST
AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS NM ON THURSDAY...BUT CONTINUED
DRY AIR OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT TSTM ACTIVITY. SE
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY BE FAVORED FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP UP INTO NM AND WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY. OF MORE CERTAINTY LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN UP LOW LEVELS...BUT THE
PARENT TROUGH MAY BRING DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN NM ONCE AGAIN.
STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FAIRLY ACTIVE AND VIGOROUS BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS OF MID
AFTN STRETCHING FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MID TO
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW HAVE ALREADY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND SOME
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVE. MOST OF THE NW THIRD OF
THE STATE WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND THIS DRYING TREND
WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN THE
WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT AND EARLIER THAN USUAL MID TO UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING AND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL
BE A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THAT WILL USHER THE MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FROM NW TO SE.

WEST AND NW NEAR SFC WINDS WILL BE PERKING UP SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN NM TUE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED NW FLOW ALOFT.
SOME SPOTTY AND LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AREAS MAINLY BETWEEN THE NW PLATEAU AND THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF RIO ARRIBA AND LOS ALAMOS COUNTIES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND GIVEN CURRENT FUEL STATUS AND
LOW/MODERATE FIRE DANGER...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE
ISSUED. STILL MIN RH WILL REALLY CRATER OCCUR ON TUE. SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE NW THIRD TO
NEARLY HALF OF FCST AREA TUE AFTN.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LOWER BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES...THE MOST EAST...WED IN
WAKE OF AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT AS WELL AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER WILL REACH NE AREAS ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE MAIN SOUTHWARD SURGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST A MODERATE EAST GAP WIND INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND  THUS DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR
WED.

THE WED TO THU PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE LITTLE OR NO THUNDER IN THE
FCST AREA. EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE
FOR LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY
RECOVERS. EXCELLENT VENTILATION THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...EXCEPT THE
EAST HALF ON WED MAY ONLY REACH FAIR TO GOOD LVLS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

NMZ501>540-181130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
521 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO TEXAS LINE. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OTHERWISE...ANY SLOW-
MOVING STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FAVOR EASTERN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MUCH DRIER AND WINDIER PATTERN WILL DEVELOPS TUESDAY WITH LARGELY
THUNDERSTORM FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MONSOON MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
458 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

NMZ523-533-172330-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
458 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GUADALUPE AND EAST
CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 458 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ENCINO...OR 14 MILES WEST OF VAUGHN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAUGHN...ENCINO AND DURAN.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 285 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 198 AND 203...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 223 AND 224.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 10558 3474 10543 3453 10510 3434 10534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 316DEG 20KT 3463 10545

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

NMZ533-180000-
GUADALUPE COUNTY-
529 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

AT 529 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SANTA ROSA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANTA ROSA AND PUERTO DE LUNA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 271 AND 287.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE POWER DAM LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 10474 3508 10458 3489 10431 3471 10456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 319DEG 14KT 3497 10461

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             4 NW GRENVILLE          36.63N 103.66W
08/17/2015  E1.00 INCH       UNION              NM   NMDOT

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG US 64 BETWEEN DES MOINES
            AND GRENVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502371

JF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

NMZ533-537-180030-
DE BACA COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
559 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL DE BACA AND
SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 558 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF PASTURA...OR 16 MILES EAST OF
VAUGHN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YESO.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 10505 3467 10489 3444 10457 3426 10482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 318DEG 21KT 3456 10492

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             LA CUEVA                35.94N 105.25W
08/17/2015  E0.88 INCH       MORA               NM   TWITTER FEED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502372

JF

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