Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY HAVE
LED TO AN INCREASE IN HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND OTHER LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...STORMS ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. ON
MONDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FAVORING THE
NORTHEAST WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM
MAY ACTUALLY BE HARD TO COME BY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BIGGER CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN THUS FAR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE BECOMING MORE APPARENT AS OF THIS WRITING...FROM STORMS OFF
THE JEMEZ AND MOUNT TAYLOR...AND SUSPECT THE STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS WILL SEND A BOUNDARY OUT SHORTLY. THUS...CHANCES ARE
LOOKING BETTER FOR STORMS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ABQ METRO
AREA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH THRU THE
EVENING...THOUGH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...A PWAT OF 1.05 ON THE 12Z SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE RGV...HI RES MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. LIKE WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN... A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH STORMS INITIALLY
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANOTHER EAST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
MOISTEN LOW LEVELS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO NUDGE INTO NW NM WITH WESTERLY
FLOW ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH. STORMS ALSO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
MONDAY...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO WESTERN NM.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE ACROSS COLORADO...PUTTING
NE NM IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. INCREASING BULK
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...THUS...EXPECT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NE.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER INTO NM. THIS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANT LIMIT CONVECTION...EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OR SO OF THE STATE DUE TO AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDING
DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOISTEN UP LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO
GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT. WE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY STORM DEVELOP
IN THE CWA. THUS...HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK FURTHER. THURSDAY SHOULD
BE QUITE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH INTERESTINGLY...MODELS
STILL WANT TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA DESPITE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT MODELS TO CHANGE FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BEFORE MOVING ONTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER WESTERN NM...STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING...MAINLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BROUGHT ON BY MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE TODAY...WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE EXPECTED IN STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY INCREASE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS
FAVORING THE EAST. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG. SHOULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS...
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLE HAIL. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ALONG WITH 4 AND 5 HAINES
VALUES AND LOWER RH VALUES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AT THE SAME TIME PUSHING THE UPPER HIGH TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC. THIS PROCESS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR WITH WESTERLY WINDS
CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH MINIMAL STORM CHANCES IN THE EAST. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WHERE
AGAIN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE LOOKS TO
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF LOWER MIN RH VALUES...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY EARLY WEDNESDAY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS A BIT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES CENTRAL AND WEST SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BECOMING FAIR BY MIDWEEK...THEN IMPROVING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

32
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOOK FOR AFTN SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTNS. EXPECT ISO
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STORM ACTIVITY WILL START BETWEEN 18 TO 20Z
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS 25
TO 40 KTS WILL BE EXPECTED IN AREAS IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL TAF SITES
WILL SEE GREATER CHANCES OF ACTIVITY...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KROW
AND KFMN. COULD EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCURATION AND MVFR CIGS IN AREAS
OF STRONGER STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  96  61  96 /   0   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  53  89  52  87 /   5  10  10  10
CUBA............................  56  86  55  86 /  10  20  10  10
GALLUP..........................  58  93  55  93 /  20  10   5   5
EL MORRO........................  55  87  54  88 /  30  20  10  10
GRANTS..........................  55  90  55  91 /  30  10  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  57  89  53  89 /  20  20  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  63  93  60  93 /  30  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  51  82  50  80 /  20  30  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  87  60  85 /  40  30  10  30
PECOS...........................  59  84  58  83 /  50  50  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  55  79  54  79 /  40  40  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  48  74  46  72 /  40  60  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  74  49  72 /  50  60  30  60
TAOS............................  54  84  53  83 /  30  20  10  20
MORA............................  55  80  54  79 /  50  60  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  92  59  90 /  30  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  62  87  61  88 /  40  30  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  91  60  91 /  30  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  68  94  66  93 /  40  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  95  68  95 /  40  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  96  65  97 /  40  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  67  95  66  96 /  30  10  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  97  64  96 /  40  10  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  67  96  66  97 /  30  10  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  67  98  66  99 /  30  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  86  60  89 /  50  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  62  91  61  91 /  50  20  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  90  56  89 /  60  40  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  83  59  85 /  60  50  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  90  60  88 /  50  40  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  65  91  63  90 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  61  80  60  80 /  50  60  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  59  84  58  84 /  50  50  30  50
RATON...........................  57  88  57  85 /  50  50  30  50
SPRINGER........................  58  88  57  86 /  50  50  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  84  56  85 /  60  60  30  40
CLAYTON.........................  64  88  63  88 /  30  30  30  40
ROY.............................  61  85  61  86 /  50  50  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  67  92  67  94 /  60  40  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  66  93  65  93 /  60  50  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  93  67  94 /  50  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  65  91 /  50  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  67  90  66  92 /  50  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  92  67  93 /  50  40  30  10
ROSWELL.........................  71  95  69  97 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  66  91  64  91 /  50  40  30  30
ELK.............................  63  83  62  83 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

34

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
324 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

NMZ501>540-161200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
324 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HAIL DOLLARS AND STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS OR FLOODING THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG N M W X.

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
423 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

NMZ527-152300-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
423 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM MDT...

AT 422 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF CAPULIN...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF RATON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN COLFAX
COUNTY.

FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 10402 3661 10429 3677 10430 3677 10429
      3680 10414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 342DEG 6KT 3672 10420

CA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
434 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

NMZ515-528-152300-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
434 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

AT 434 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PHILMONT SCOUT RANCH...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SPRINGER...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CIMARRON...PHILMONT SCOUT RANCH AND RAYADO.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE PHILMONT SCOUT RANCH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 10505 3659 10489 3640 10467 3634 10504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 354DEG 10KT 3648 10490

CA

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