Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ISOLD/SCT
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AND ONCE DEVELOPED MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY TO
THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND TO THE NORTHEAST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MVFR AND POSSIBLY LOCAL IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY MAINLY WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES AND LESS LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST. DRIER AND LESS
ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...WITH BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MIDDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN. AFTER
TODAY...MAINLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO CROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
NM AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS NOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
FLAGSTAFF. THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY PUSH EAST OF THE
TEXAS BORDER BY 12-14Z AND ALLOW FOR A SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND BEGINS. WITH STRONG FORCING AND LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION...
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY...PERHAPS BY 17Z...ALONG OR JUST EAST OF
HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH
2000 J/KG. THUS STORMS MAY INITIATE NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...BUT
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO VEER TO AROUND TO THE SW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD AND DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE DRY AIR MOVING IN...PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 1 INCH...OR BETTER THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS...A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST
WITH THESE STORMS. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
THIS INCLUDES THE CLOVIS AREA WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS INTACT THROUGH 00Z AND ANY
SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM.

MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
COLD CORE OF THE LOW...THUS A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN. A COLD CORE FUNNEL IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A 996 MB SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SE CO WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD AND
SOME DRY AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NW OR NC NM.

THE DRYLINE WILL SLOSH BACK WESTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE A THEME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO DIVE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IT
APPEARS IT MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN A CLOSED LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN NM
ON SATURDAY. IF THE LOW DOES INDEED DIVE THAT FAR SOUTH...EXPECT THE
DRYLINE TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NM EACH NIGHT AND THEN MIX
BACK EASTWARD EACH DAY. WITH THAT...WILL COME A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER EACH AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP
WILL EXIST AS LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

IT WAS A WET MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST. AROUND FIVE INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE CANNON AIR FORCE BASE.
THE UPPER LOW CAUSING ALL THIS RAIN IS NOW OVER AZ. IT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY. A DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NM AND IT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY. BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
AROUND ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
SO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON TAP WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
NEAR THE TX BORDER. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AS WELL WITH
FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES HIT HARD MONDAY.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR EARLY MAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT TODAY WHILE VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
EXCELLENT.

A DRYING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WITHIN SIX OR SEVEN DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
NEAR THE TX BORDER ON THURSDAY ALONG A POTENTIAL DRYLINE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM MAY RESULT IN A FEW
HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BORDERLINE CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER A SMALL AREA OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE DURING THIS TIME.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS
BACK TO NM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STORM SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CO SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME DRYING AND WARMING TO THE
AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY. AN ACTIVE DRY LINE MIGHT
SET UP TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ535>538.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NMZ501>540-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
517 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
OF THESE STORMS...THOUGH THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS GREATEST
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...BUT MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...FLASH FLOODING
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG N M W X.

34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
131 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NMZ535-536-052030-
CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
131 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CLOVIS AREA...

AT 126 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...WINDS UP TO
40 MPH AND HAIL ONE HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER NEAR CANNON AFB. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE PLEASANT HILL...
PORTAIR...RANCHVALE...SAINT VRAIN...TEXICO AND OASIS STATE PARK.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

THE COMBINATION OF A COOL AIRMASS AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED
SHORT LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN
AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE CLOVIS AREA INCLUDING CANNON AIRFORCE
BASE.

WHILE A VAST MAJORITY OF COLD AIR FUNNELS DO NOT REACH THE
GROUND...VERY LOCALIZED DAMAGE TO LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS OUT
BUILDINGS...CARPORTS AND PATIO COVERS...AS WELL AS TREE BRANCHES AND
STREET SIGNS...IS POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3420 10350 3452 10355 3466 10304 3449 10303
      3441 10304 3437 10302 3424 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 230DEG 16KT 3442 10328

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
148 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NMZ533-534-536>538-052045-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY
COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
148 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHAVES...NORTHWESTERN
ROOSEVELT...SOUTHWESTERN QUAY...EASTERN GUADALUPE AND DE BACA
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

AT 145 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
SOUTH OF NEWKIRK TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF MESA...AND GENERALLY
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE STRONG STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...FORT
SUMNER...TAIBAN...HOUSE...TOLAR..AND FORT SUMNER STATE MONUMENT.

LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
FUNNEL CLOUDS. LOCALIZED DAMAGE TO LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS OUT
BUILDINGS...CARPORTS AND PATIO COVERS...AS WELL AS TREE BRANCHES AND
STREET SIGNS...IS POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 10389 3395 10387 3371 10436 3413 10462
      3511 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 268DEG 17KT 3494 10417 3416 10445

KJ

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