Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WILL TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING INTO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. MORE STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY...
WITH A GRADUAL DOWNTICK EACH DAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND LEAD TO A DRYING AND WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA MAY SEE THEIR FIRST MID TO UPPER
90S SO FAR THIS YEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NOW FOCUSING OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SE AREAS.
SVR STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 9PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE
WEST...STORMS HAVE MERGED INTO A MORE STABLE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. SOME HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE ANIMAS
RIVER BASIN TODAY SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LEVELS NEAR CEDAR HILL
AND FARMINGTON TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DID NOT HAVE AN APPROPRIATE AMOUNT OF TIME TO MAKE
ANY REAL CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND TONIGHT. IT STILL
APPEARS A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM ARIZONA BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK AND BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF REALLY HOT TEMPS TO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA INTO AT
LEAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY...THOUGH SOME DRYING MAY GET UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE WEST...AT LEAST ENOUGH TO LESSEN STORM DEVELOPMENT SOME
TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...SOME VERY STRONG IF NOT SEVERE AND FAVORING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE INTO AT LEAST TUE BEFORE BECOMING LESS
WIDESPREAD. WITH MANY SPOTS RECEIVING WETTING RAINFALL INTO THIS
EVE...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY WILL BE ON HAND OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCH A BIT CLOSER TO
AVERAGE SUN AND DECENT VENTILATION RATES WILL PREVAIL MOST ZONES.

BETWEEN MON AND MON NIGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM...RECHARGING LOWER LAYER MOISTURE. THE FRONT
MAY REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY OR BEFORE DUSK AND PERHAPS MAKE
IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT...THOUGH FCST
MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED OF THIS FRONT. THIS
COULD ALSO BRING AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE IN CENTRAL ZONES LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY MUCH LESS NUMEROUS TOWARD
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. FORECAST MODELS STILL PROJECTING
A DAY BY DAY DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH
VERY FEW STORMS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. 43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED QUICKLY AND EARLY ACROSS THE NW THIRD
OF NM AND THE STRONGER TSRA WILL GENERATE RELATIVELY SHORT
DURATION MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS VSBY...AS WELL AS OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. GUP...SAF AND LVS ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE THESE
CONDITIONS ANYTIME FROM ISSUANCE TIME OF THIS PRODUCT THROUGH
14/01Z WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES THEREAFTER. ABQ...AEG AND FMN TO
SEE STILL SIGNIFICANT BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES OF SAME. FARTHER
EAST NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FIRST ACROSS EAST SLOPES OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND EAST TO WESTERN REACHES OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THEN BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
LATER AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. LATTER AREA STORMS COULD TURN
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 OR 55 KT.
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS OR FOG REDUCED VSBY MAY DEVELOP MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  83  55  88 /  20  10  10   5
DULCE...........................  45  78  46  83 /  50  30  30  20
CUBA............................  48  76  50  79 /  50  40  40  20
GALLUP..........................  49  81  50  85 /  30  20  10  10
EL MORRO........................  48  81  50  85 /  50  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  49  83  51  86 /  40  20  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  51  82  53  84 /  20  10  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  53  87  55  89 /  10  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  44  71  45  74 /  60  50  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  76  54  79 /  50  50  50  40
PECOS...........................  52  75  53  76 /  50  50  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  45  71  46  73 /  30  50  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  43  61  44  63 /  40  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  64  46  65 /  30  50  50  50
TAOS............................  46  75  47  77 /  30  40  40  30
MORA............................  48  72  49  72 /  30  50  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  52  81  53  84 /  30  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  54  76  56  78 /  40  40  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  81  56  83 /  40  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  84  60  85 /  50  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  61  86  62  87 /  40  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  88  61  90 /  40  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  89  61  91 /  30  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  89  60  91 /  40  10  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  59  88  60  89 /  40  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  61  91  61  92 /  10  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  55  80  56  82 /  50  40  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  56  83  57  84 /  50  30  50  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  82  52  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  78  55  79 /  50  20  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  82  56  84 /  20  20  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  87  58  88 /  10  10  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  52  82  54  80 /  20  40  20  40
CAPULIN.........................  54  73  53  72 /  30  40  40  30
RATON...........................  52  76  52  76 /  30  50  40  30
SPRINGER........................  53  77  52  77 /  30  30  40  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  74  51  74 /  30  50  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  59  78  59  78 /  40  40  40  30
ROY.............................  56  76  56  76 /  30  50  50  30
CONCHAS.........................  61  83  62  84 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  60  84  61  84 /  50  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  84  62  84 /  60  30  40  30
CLOVIS..........................  59  82  62  81 /  60  30  50  30
PORTALES........................  61  84  63  82 /  60  30  50  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  84  63  84 /  50  30  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  63  90  64  89 /  30  30  20  20
PICACHO.........................  56  87  58  86 /  20  30  20  20
ELK.............................  54  83  57  80 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
505 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ501>540-141200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
505 AM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE SAME
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ535-536-132130-
CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
302 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CURRY AND
NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 302 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOLAR...OR 27 MILES EAST OF
FORT SUMNER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MELROSE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

LAT...LON 3426 10355 3426 10391 3438 10391 3448 10358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 251DEG 15KT 3434 10379

KJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
420 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

NMZ534-536-537-132245-
DE BACA COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
420 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DE BACA...
SOUTHWESTERN QUAY AND NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
MDT...

AT 420 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT SUMNER...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT SUMNER...HOUSE...TAIBAN AND TOLAR.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE FORT SUMNER STATE MONUMENT.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

LAT...LON 3420 10439 3468 10429 3482 10381 3421 10386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 262DEG 19KT 3434 10416

KJ