Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA...DRAWING SOME MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMED...AND SHOULD BE MOST
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING. SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS
WELL...BUT WILL BE MUCH FEWER AND MORE ISOLATED. BRIEF DOWNPOURS
CAUSING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ALONG WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARDS WITH ANY
PASSING STORM. CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...GROWING INTO NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY OVER THE EAST THIS EVENING BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH. SOME DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO.  FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE AS MOISTURE SEEPS NORTHWARD...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
FROM HURRICANE BLANCA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
EVERY DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE LOSING
ITS IDENTITY AND ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST TO
WEST CENTRAL NM. THE SLIGHT DRYING TREND FOR THESE AREAS PROBABLY
WON/T SURVIVE FOR LONG... AS HURRICANE BLANCA CHUGS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE GFS APPEARS TO DRAWN MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OFF OF THIS SYSTEM AS SOON AS MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS TO
AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM ON MONDAY...THEN OVERSPREADS
MORE OF THE STATE THEREAFTER. THE STATE WILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE POSITIONED TO
THE WEST BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO
PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES.
THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO COLORADO AND THE DRYLINE
BECOMES ACTIVE. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A BUSY NEXT SEVEN DAYS FOR
THE RADARS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO BE
NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. STORMS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM
THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO WESTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW...THE BEST MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUS...HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ACROSS THE WEST...NEARING 15 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE PLAINS EARLY MONDAY.
THIS AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM NOW HURRICANE BLANCA
WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER NEW/OLD MEXICO. SOME MOISTURE MAY OOZE INTO SW PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THUS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SQUARELY OVER NM. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE WATCHING THE MOISTURE FROM BLANCA TRACK
OVER AZ. EARLIER INDICATIONS WERE THAT THE MOISTURE WOULD STILL MOVE
OVER WESTERN/NORTHERN NM ON WED/THURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE NW NM MAY SEE
SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WED/THURS...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
FROM BLANCA WILL NOW MOVE NORTHWARD INTO UTAH AND COLORADO...RATHER
THAN INTO NM. WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY TO
IMPROVE CONFIDENCE.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THRU THE NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WILL TREND DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS
UNDER THE RIDGE.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

NMZ501>540-071200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
603 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL
MAY LAST LONG ENOUGH AT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH THIRD OF
THE STATE TO CREATE SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OR HEAVY RUNOFF
IN URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL AGAIN BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MAINLY NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NEW MEXICO FOR THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

43

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