Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENEROUS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPING INTO IT. DRY AIR AND GENERALLY
SHOWER FREE AREA OVER NW NM AT 00Z WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
09/15Z BEFORE BEING OVERCOME BY INCREASING MOISTURE. CONVECTION
FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 05Z BUT
ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTS TO 40KT POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MFVR CIGS OVER NE AND E CENTRAL NM INDICATED
BY SHORT TERM MODELS 09/06Z-13Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
NORTHWARD AND SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR WET STORMS FROM THE EAST
TONIGHT TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL LESSEN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND KEEP THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE FIRING UP ON QUE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS. UPPED POPS ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS AND NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. ADJUSTED POPS LOWER IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND CANT
RULE OUT LOCALIZED HYDRO IMPACTS DUE TO ANTECEDENT MOIST
CONDITIONS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH ACTIVITY FOR A SHORT
FUSE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE MOISTURE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA AND THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE THE BENEFITS DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HRS. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH POSITION AND ASSOCIATED
STEERING FLOW...CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THUS BUMPED UP POPS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE
EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. STORMS
CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MTNS. AREA OF CONCERN AS FAR AS HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS SAN JUAN/RIO ARRIBA/SANDOVAL AND TAOS COUNTIES.
SOME OF THE STREAMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ARE NEAR BANKFULL DUE
TO PREVIOUS RAIN/SNOW MELT. MODELS SEEM TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD INFILTRATE SOUTHERN AREAS DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AS THE
CLOSED LOW ORIGINALLY OFF THE BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM SW TO NE. THE MOST UNSETTLED
AREA SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SIMILAR
PATTERN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL
SPREAD DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
SUSPECT THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ENOUGH BY FRIDAY TO PROMOTE
ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING
THIS PERIOD.

A BAGGY TROUGH IS PROJECTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO HANG OUT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD
DESTABILIZE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY IN TERMS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WOULD MOST
LIKELY REDUCE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE BLANCA
MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH AZ TUESDAY AND NNE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UNSEASONABLY RICH PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVER NM CAUSING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN .88 AND 1.25 INCHES TUESDAY. LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL RUN THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD FALL 0.10 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR...WRAPPING AROUND A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN...BEGINS TO MOVE OVER NM FROM THE WEST.
NONETHELESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN AREAS WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH. THE DRIER
AIR WILL FURTHER OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY WITH A
NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION AREAWIDE.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK. FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DRY LINE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

A SECONDARY AND VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT SW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
DRAWING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WITHIN ABOUT 7 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN THEY WILL
TREND BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. A LEE TROUGH WILL INDUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION
WILL BE GOOD OR BETTER FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW POCKETS OF POOR OVER NW AREAS ON TUESDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&