Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Albuquerque, NM

369 
WGUS75 KABQ 012049
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
249 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NMC049-012230-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150801T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA FE-
249 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST 
PORTIONS OF SANTA FE...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY...

AT 247 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED
RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE 
WARNED AREA. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN 45 MINUTES. 
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG CAMINO LA TIERRA...OR COUNTY ROAD 
77...AND NEAR LAS CAMPANAS. HIGH WATER FLOWS ARE ALSO LIKELY IN 
ALAMO CREEK. 

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF 
SANTA FE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANTA FE AND TESUQUE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 10592 3570 10588 3565 10608 3575 10610

$$

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598 
WGUS75 KABQ 012133
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NMC049-012230-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150801T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA FE-
333 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS 
OF SANTA FE...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY...

AT 329 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED 
RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS 
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SANTA FE METRO AREA. THE HARDEST 
HIT AREAS WERE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 599. 3.35 INCHES OF 
RAIN WAS MEASURED IN LAS CAMPANAS. THOUGH ONLY LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS 
IN THE AREA...RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG 
CAMINO LA TIERRA OR COUNTY ROAD 77...AND WITHIN THE LAS CAMPANAS 
COMMUNITY. ARROYO LOS FRIJOLES...CANADA ANCHA...ARROYO CUMA...ALAMO 
CREEK AND ARROYO CALABASAS WILL HAVE HIGH WATER FLOWS. 

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF 
SANTA FE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANTA FE AND TESUQUE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 10592 3570 10588 3565 10608 3575 10610

$$

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722 
WGUS75 KABQ 012222
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
422 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NMC049-012232-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-150801T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA FE-
422 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 PM MDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3579 10592 3570 10588 3565 10608 3575 10610

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NMZ501>540-021200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
533 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER NEW MEXICO...AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...NAMELY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. STORMS WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TIERS OF NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB
SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. YOU CAN ALSO
SUBMIT STORM REPORTS AND PHOTOS ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE OR VIA
TWITTER USING THE HASHTAG N M W X.

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