Areal Flood Advisory 310, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY BREAKING OUT AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THRU 21Z. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE N/NE NEAR 10KTS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. STORMS
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LCL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MVFR CIGS/
VSBYS REDUCTIONS FROM DIRECT HITS. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WEST OF THE
CONT DVD WILL FAVOR STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHRA/TSRA WILL CLUSTER INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
LINGER THRU MIDNIGHT. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT MAY ALSO SLIDE DOWN
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FROM CONVECTION OVER COLORADO LATE TONIGHT...
WHICH MAY SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHRA OVERNIGHT NEAR KLVS AND KTCC.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLE DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY. THIS SHIFT WILL
RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO WESTERN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHIFTING
FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST TX EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG TROUGH/LOW DROPPING INTO THE PACNW WILL FORCE THE UPPER
HIGH SLIGHTLY EWD TODAY. THIS EWD SHIFT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
BETTER INSTABILITY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NRN MEXICO. COLLIDING RAIN COOLED
OUTFLOWS WILL MAKE STORMS IN RGV MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING. IN
FACT...GFS KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER
CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE NIGHT.

DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO WRN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHIFTING
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GFS THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS AND SEEMS LIKE THE
MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH SLIDING EWD
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
ERN NM WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN A SWATH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. FAVORED AREAS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EWD TO THE TX LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE NRN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING.
ANOTHER HEALTHILY ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED MOST AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SE PLAINS
WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY WIN OUT.

THE UPPER HIGH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ELONGATED AND CENTERED NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
KEEP THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST AND KEEP CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AND NRN NM RATHER ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD/VERY GOOD VENT RATES WEST /EXCELLENT EAST/ TODAY WILL IMPROVE
FURTHER MON BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD AND BECOMING MUCH MORE VARIABLE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED/THU. MAX TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE COOLING BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS MID
TO LATE WEEK. EXPECT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN WETTING TSTM FOOTPRINTS
THIS PM AS COMPARED TO SAT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WC HIGHLANDS
/CONTDVD REGION TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES.
THIS AS DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE BRUSHING FAR
SW NM/SE AZ BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
CENTERED OVER NW TX. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE CHUSKA
MTS/ASSAYII BURN SCAR THAT HAS BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS BUT SHOULD SEE DECENT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE SEASON MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD. DRYING FROM THE
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NM AND SHIFT THE MONSOON PLUME/FOCUS
FOR STORMS EASTWARD MONDAY. BEST CHANCE ALONG/EAST OF CENTRAL MT
CHAIN TUE.

THEREAFTER...GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH REORGANIZES TO THE WEST OF NM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A MOIST BACK DOOR FRONT TO INITIALLY IMPACT
THE EASTERN PLAINS WED AND EVENTUALLY MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WEST BY
THU. WED-THU PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AMONG THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE COMING
WEEK...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WETTER PERIOD VS. GFS
ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NMZ501>540-271130-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
517 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TODAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS. SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL NOT ONLY BRING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION BUT
IT WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO GET NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS GOING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

NMZ508-262130-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
252 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

AT 252 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF PIETOWN...OR 17 MILES
NORTHWEST OF DATIL...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIETOWN.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT BRIEF BUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND
PONDING OF WATER ON HIGHWAYS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND IN LOW SPOTS. FAST
RUNNING WATER WILL QUICKLY FILL ARROYOS AND DITCHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 10820 3444 10816 3440 10814 3438 10812
      3441 10803 3439 10798 3438 10792 3424 10795
      3428 10826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 097DEG 12KT 3434 10803

BENNETT