Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
556 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
OVERALL MORE TRANQUIL WX ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED PESKY VIRGA AND -TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CONT DVD WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THRU 03Z. FARTHER NORTHEAST... SOME MORE IMPRESSIVE ISOLD
STORMS ARE PRODUCING ABUNDANT SMALL HAIL AND LCL HVY RAIN. EXPECT
ALL ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE AREA. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE A BREEZIER
TREND WITH MORE -SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
NM AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST. HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THAT ACTIVITY. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE A STRONGER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. RESIDUAL
IMPACTS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT OR DRYLINE RETREATS
BACK TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIALLY FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SW AREAS LOOK TO BE A
LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP BUT SUSPECT THE CIRRUS HAS SOMETHING TO DO
WITH THAT. EITHER WAY...DOWN DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MODELS
SHOW THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE NE THIRD AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
THERE TO REFLECT THAT ACTIVITY.

THE PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL INITIALLY PUMP INTO SW AREAS SO REDUCED
POPS THERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FILTER UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND BEGIN TO SHARPEN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS SURPRISING THE NAM ISNT MORE BULLISH FOR
THURSDAY MORNING LIKE THE GFS IS. WENT A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE
GFS BASED ON THE PATTERN BUT WORTH WATCHING. DIDNT GO HOG WILD
THOUGH.

THE SURFACE DRYLINE SHOULD BE PRETTY PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE FURTHER EAST AND BE FOUND OVER THE STATE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON THE PATTERN CANT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LATEST SPC DAY 3
OUTLOOK SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MARGINAL SHOT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT ONCE AGAIN...GFS IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE NAM. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
BROAD TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND WEAKENS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BE
MUCH DRIER DURING THIS PERIOD.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY ISOLD ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE BACK DOOR COULD PROVIDE A ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT TREND. BASED ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE BACK DOOR..SUSPECT FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY GET TOO STABLE ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT AND RESIDUAL DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY AND PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING
THAT PERIOD. AREAS ALONG THE DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD BE
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS DURING THE DAY PERIOD ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET BACK TO BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE EAST...DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH FOR THIS EVENT TO UNFOLD BECAUSE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING IT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
DIFFERENT THOUGH AS FAR AS THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
TIMING. ECMWF/GFS APPEAR TO BE ON BOARD WITH THE LATEST RUN.
PROBABLY WILL SEE THE FRONTAL INTRUSION AS FAR WEST AS THE AZ
STATE LINE IF NOT BEYOND. THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION WILL AID THIS
PUSH WESTWARD AND SOMETIMES THE MODELS HAVE A HARDER TIME
ACCOUNTING FOR THAT. 50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TODAY. MOST DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS LOSING OUT TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. NAM INDICATING SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD CONTINUE
TO LINGER PAST SUNSET OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WARMEST
TEMPS IN QUITE SOMETIME REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS OF LATE WILL MAKE NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS FEEL
DOWN RIGHT VERY WARM TO HOT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RESULTING SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW CENTER WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALL MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM NM FROM THE WEST...LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS AREA WILL BE
THE FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...DRY AIR ALOFT EXPECTED TO WIN
OUT.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD BRINGING A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH ERN NM FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN WWD INTO THE RGV AND BEYOND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEHIND IT...SET THE STAGE FOR A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY. BOTH
MODELS GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO TRENDING FARTHER WEST
WITH CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING...MOST LIKELY AS FAR WEST AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
DECREASE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NAM AND GFS
BOTH PROGGING HIGH HAINES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BUT WITH ERC
VALUES BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CONCERNS FOR THE ONE REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT HAD
WELL ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
636 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     HAIL             RATON                   36.89N 104.44W
05/26/2015  E0.75 INCH       COLFAX             NM   TWITTER FEED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1502227

GUYER

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