Flash Flood Warning 176, NWS Las Vegas, NV

382 
WGUS75 KVEF 170103
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
603 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

AZC015-170200-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0176.000000T0000Z-140917T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
603 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

AT 557 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTH 
CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY HAD MOVED WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER RUNOFF 
FROM SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EARLIER MAY STILL BE CAUSING FLASH 
FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA. TRAVELERS...HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD 
BE CAUTIOUS IN THE AREA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INTERSTATE 40 SOUTH AND WEST OF KINGMAN...
HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HUALAPAI PEAK...
YUCCA...
OTHER RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN WASHES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ON
ROADS. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOODED ROAD OR ENTER A FLOOD CHANNEL. TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN!

REPORT FLOODING TO THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA
FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 11374 3421 11383 3425 11386 3426 11404
      3447 11424 3473 11438 3496 11431 3514 11412
      3522 11391 3504 11391 3502 11378 3431 11353
      3422 11360 3420 11367

$$

WOLCOTT

528 
WGUS75 KVEF 170152
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
652 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

AZC015-170201-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0176.000000T0000Z-140917T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
652 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...

ONLY A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH 
CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY ALONG WITH A COUPLE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE 
RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED AND THE WARNING WILL 
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CAMPER...HIKERS...AND PEOPLE TRAVELING 
IN THE AREA SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER FLOWING IN 
NORMALLY DRY WASHED AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

LAT...LON 3423 11374 3421 11383 3425 11386 3426 11404
      3447 11424 3473 11438 3496 11431 3514 11412
      3522 11391 3504 11391 3502 11378 3431 11353
      3422 11360 3420 11367

$$

WOLCOTT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
113 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THIS STORM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY EVENING TO BEGIN A DRYING TREND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF TRACKING
HURRICANE ODILE (OR HER REMNANTS) FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS PLACES
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AS IT TRANSITS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANAYSIS REVEALS THAT
ODILE HAS PUSHED A GREAT DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY.
DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM ODILE IS STAYING TO THE EAST AS WELL
WHICH GIVES OUR AREA THE ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TAP THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR OUR AREA? FOR STARTERS...THERE IS A
HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAIN IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. IT IS NOW CLEAR THAT OUR AREA WILL NOT BE IN
THE AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. RATHER...WE NOW
EXPECT BOTH TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BE VERY ACTIVE WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOMEWHAT AKIN TO A STRONG MONSOON
DAY. FOR THIS REASON WE ARE KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO MAINTAIN AWARENESS THAT FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC THOUGH. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD...WE MAY END UP CANCELING THE WATCH DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING IN AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS/GEM FORECAST A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
FORECASTS AN OPEN WAVE. WITH A LOW IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION,
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA COULD BE AN ISSUE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST THE TROUGH/LOW WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST...LEAVING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE 06Z NAM12, WHICH RUNS
THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY, STILL GENERATES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN CWA
IN THE MORNING SO LEFT CHANCE POPS IN LINCOLN/MOHAVE COUNTY IN THE
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THEN LOWERED CHANCES AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/STABLE AIR PUSHES IN.

LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT-MON TIME PERIOD AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE REGARDING HOW THE LOW EVOLVES. THE ECMWF FORMS A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRADES IT
WESTWARD OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BRINGING IT BACK INLAND ON
MONDAY. THIS LEAVES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY ALL WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS DROPS
THE LOW TO NEAR SAN DIEGO SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES IT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND THE GFS GENERATES
QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW
INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SAT-MON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA FRI-MON PER THE GFS/GEM HOWEVER, IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT, THE WEEKEND WOULD BE WARMER/SUNNIER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10-12 KTS...THEN SETTLING TO
SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING. SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS.
ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY...MORE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOR
MENTIONED PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND LAS
VEGAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-15
KTS MUCH OF TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
346 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE JOSHUA TREE       34.14N 116.32W
09/16/2014                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
            HIGHWAY 62 NEAR PARK BLVD. FLOOD CHANNELS ARE FLOWING BUT
            NOT YEAT AT CAPACITY.

0333 PM     HAIL             2 S JOSHUA TREE         34.10N 116.32W
09/16/2014  E1.00 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH VERY HIGH WIND
            GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH

0333 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S JOSHUA TREE         34.10N 116.32W
09/16/2014  M0.00 INCH       SAN BERNARDINO     CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVER 1.0 INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 25 MIN REPORTED BY A
            SPOTTER IN JOSHUA TREE.

0337 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N JOSHUA TREE         34.18N 116.32W
09/16/2014                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS HOME FLOODED ON OUTPOST ROAD IN
            JOSHUA TREE

0344 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW JOSHUA TREE        34.11N 116.34W
09/16/2014                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HOUSE FLOODED ON NAVAJO TRAIL NEAR SUNNY VISTA

&&

TLERICOS