Flash Flood Warning 174, NWS Las Vegas, NV

166 
WGUS75 KVEF 162249
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
349 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CAC071-170100-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0174.000000T0000Z-140917T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
349 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 341 PM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN JOSHUA TREE. WATER IS FLOWING INTO 
HOUSES ON NAVAJO TRAIL AND OUTPOST ROAD IN THE JOSHUA TREE AREA. 
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE WARNED AREA AND RUNOFF FROM THIS 
HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT STATE ROUTE 62.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOSHUA TREE...JOSHUA TREE LAKE CAMPGROUND...YUCCA VALLEY AND STATE 
ROUTE 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON ROADS...IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND LOW
LYING AREAS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROAD OR ENTER A FLOOD
CHANNEL. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

REPORT FLOODING TO THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA
FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 11660 3415 11646 3423 11644 3424 11611
      3412 11611 3412 11626 3408 11627 3408 11644
      3403 11648 3402 11662

$$

STUMPF

910 
WGUS75 KVEF 162315
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
415 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CAC071-170100-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0174.000000T0000Z-140917T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
415 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 408 PM PDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED TRUCK STUCK 
IN FLOOD WATERS IN JOSHUA TREE AT THE INTERSECTION OF SUNNY VISTA 
AND ALTA LOMA DRIVE. RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN WILL 
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WARNED AREA. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOSHUA TREE...JOSHUA TREE LAKE CAMPGROUND AND STATE ROUTE 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON ROADS...IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND LOW
LYING AREAS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROAD OR ENTER A FLOOD
CHANNEL. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

REPORT FLOODING TO THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA
FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 11660 3415 11646 3423 11644 3424 11611
      3412 11611 3412 11626 3408 11627 3408 11644
      3403 11648 3402 11662

$$

STUMPF

388 
WGUS75 KVEF 170019
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
519 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CAC071-170100-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0174.000000T0000Z-140917T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
519 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 515 PM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED RUNOFF FROM THE 
EARLIER HEAVY RAIN IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE BUT THERE ARE A FEW WASHES 
IN THE JOSHUA TREE AREA THAT ARE STILL FLOWING AND IMPACTING 
PORTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 62.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOSHUA TREE AND JOSHUA TREE LAKE CAMPGROUND.

LAT...LON 3410 11660 3415 11646 3423 11644 3424 11611
      3412 11611 3412 11626 3408 11627 3408 11644
      3403 11648 3402 11662

$$

STUMPF

635 
WGUS75 KVEF 170051
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
551 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CAC071-170100-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0174.000000T0000Z-140917T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
551 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
AND ANY RUNOFF HAS LIKELY ENDED.

LAT...LON 3410 11660 3415 11646 3423 11644 3424 11611
      3412 11611 3412 11626 3408 11627 3408 11644
      3403 11648 3402 11662

$$

STUMPF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
113 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
EAST OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THIS STORM WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY EVENING TO BEGIN A DRYING TREND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF TRACKING
HURRICANE ODILE (OR HER REMNANTS) FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS PLACES
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AS IT TRANSITS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ANAYSIS REVEALS THAT
ODILE HAS PUSHED A GREAT DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUR WAY.
DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM ODILE IS STAYING TO THE EAST AS WELL
WHICH GIVES OUR AREA THE ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
TAP THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR OUR AREA? FOR STARTERS...THERE IS A
HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAIN IN THE FORECAST SINCE WE REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. IT IS NOW CLEAR THAT OUR AREA WILL NOT BE IN
THE AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. RATHER...WE NOW
EXPECT BOTH TODAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BE VERY ACTIVE WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOMEWHAT AKIN TO A STRONG MONSOON
DAY. FOR THIS REASON WE ARE KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO MAINTAIN AWARENESS THAT FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC THOUGH. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD...WE MAY END UP CANCELING THE WATCH DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING IN AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SAY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE WEST COAST FRIDAY
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS/GEM FORECAST A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHILE THE ECMWF
FORECASTS AN OPEN WAVE. WITH A LOW IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION,
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA COULD BE AN ISSUE. THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECAST THE TROUGH/LOW WILL SWEEP MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST...LEAVING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE 06Z NAM12, WHICH RUNS
THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY, STILL GENERATES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN CWA
IN THE MORNING SO LEFT CHANCE POPS IN LINCOLN/MOHAVE COUNTY IN THE
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THEN LOWERED CHANCES AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DRY/STABLE AIR PUSHES IN.

LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT-MON TIME PERIOD AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE REGARDING HOW THE LOW EVOLVES. THE ECMWF FORMS A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN RETROGRADES IT
WESTWARD OUT TO SEA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BRINGING IT BACK INLAND ON
MONDAY. THIS LEAVES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY ALL WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS DROPS
THE LOW TO NEAR SAN DIEGO SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES IT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND THE GFS GENERATES
QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW
INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SAT-MON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE AREA FRI-MON PER THE GFS/GEM HOWEVER, IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION DOES PAN OUT, THE WEEKEND WOULD BE WARMER/SUNNIER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10-12 KTS...THEN SETTLING TO
SOUTH UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING. SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
LIMITED TO THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS.
ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY...MORE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE AFOR
MENTIONED PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND LAS
VEGAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY 10-15
KTS MUCH OF TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

LERICOS

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER