Flash Flood Warning 153, NWS Las Vegas, NV

889 
WGUS75 KVEF 081827
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1127 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

AZC015-082000-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0153.000000T0000Z-140908T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
1127 AM MST MON SEP 8 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM MST/100 PM
PDT/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...

AT 1120 AM MST...THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE 
COUNTY IN THE MOHAVE VALLEY AND TOPOCK AREAS. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM
HEAVIER RAIN THAT FELL EARLIER WILL STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING 
AS WELL AS RAPID FLOWS IN WASHES. RUNOFF INTO THE SACRAMENTO WASH IS 
LIKELY WHICH WILL STILL CAUSE WATER AND MUD TO FLOW ACROSS HIGHWAY 
95 WHERE THE WASH CROSSES THE ROAD.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOHAVE VALLEY
  TOPOCK
  THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE SACRAMENTO WASH WHERE IT CROSSES HIGHWAY 95

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN WASHES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ON
ROADS. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOODED ROAD OR ENTER A FLOOD CHANNEL. TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN!

REPORT FLOODING TO THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA
FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 11445 3469 11447 3471 11447 3477 11456
      3483 11458 3485 11462 3487 11463 3492 11461
      3495 11457 3495 11429

$$

STACHELSKI

224 
WGUS75 KVEF 081959
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1259 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014

AZC015-082008-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0153.000000T0000Z-140908T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOHAVE AZ-
1259 PM MST MON SEP 8 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR MOHAVE COUNTY...

FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING WHERE THE SACRAMENTO WASH CROSSES 
HIGHWAY 95. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES.

LAT...LON 3468 11445 3469 11447 3471 11447 3477 11456
      3483 11458 3485 11462 3487 11463 3492 11461
      3495 11457 3495 11429

$$

STACHELSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
924 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. A
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LINGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY EAST OF
LAS VEGAS...THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...SPC MESOANALYSIS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE DECENT CAPE AND
INSTABILITY WEST ACROSS ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES AND EASTERN INYO
COUNTY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS INYO AND NYE
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. I UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
LATEST TRENDS. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
241 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAIN
AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. PRECIP WAS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY AT 230 AM...BUT SURFACE OBS SHOWED DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S FROM LAS VEGAS SOUTH AND IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SHOWED OVER TWO INCHES AT VIDAL
TAPERING DOWN TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER AT DESERT ROCK...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF FORMER HURRICANE NORBERT. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS EAST OF A
LINE FROM YUCCA VALLEY TO PAHRUMP TO RACHEL...BUT AM NOT WILLING TO
DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DEATH VALLEY OR BARSTOW AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL AREAS THERE WHICH CAN FLOOD EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN
IF IT FALLS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO
WORK INTO THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. POINT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS AND PRECIP LOCATION/TIMING SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE MODEL
MIXING RATIO [MOISTURE] FIELDS FOR TUESDAY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS THE CHOSEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT AND
THUS ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST. MUCH DRIER AIR
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF A TONOPAH-PAHRUMP-BARSTOW LINE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...EAST OF A RACHEL-LAS VEGAS-YUCCA VALLEY LINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST DURING THE EVENING.
AS FAR AS DYNAMICS ARE CONCERNED A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
90KT JET WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ACCORDING TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...LIFT FROM THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO
REACH A MAXIMUM DURING THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
NAM IS ROUGHLY 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THIS PROGRESSION. INSTABILITY
LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH AMPLE DYNAMICS WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID I DON'T SEE A COMPELLING
REASON TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH JUST YET...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT AS THE JET SAGS
SOUTH IT WILL CREATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED 0-6KM SHEAR...WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 35-50KTS OVER LINCOLN...NORTHEASTERN CLARK...AND NORTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY BY 18Z THEN WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
AND NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...IF WE DO GET A FEW
STORMS THIS SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS IN THESE
AREAS DURING THE DAY. THESE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN...VERY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LEFT IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WEDNESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. OTHERWISE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME BACK AND FORTH IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN AND MOISTURE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. FOR THE
MOMENT HAVE INTRODUCED SOME GHOST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINAL TODAY SHOULD BE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM...WITH STORMS LIKELY
ONGOING MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND DEVELOPING
IN THE REMAINING CORRIDORS BY NOON. WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC AND
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT THE TERMINAL TUESDAY...BUT CHANCES WILL
LINGER IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TODAY EAST OF A
LINE FROM YUCCA VALLEY TO TONOPAH...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOW
CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
MOHAVE COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY. SPOTTERS IN MOHAVE COUNTY SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

MORGAN/WOLCOTT

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER