Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Las Vegas, NV

815 
WGUS75 KVEF 070006
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
506 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014

CAC071-NVC003-070015-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-140707T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-CLARK NV-
506 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM PDT/515 PM MST/ FOR
CLARK AND EAST CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED WITHIN THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...RUNOFF MAY 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 95 IN EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO 
COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING. 

LAT...LON 3454 11498 3532 11505 3502 11464 3487 11463
      3483 11458 3476 11455 3454 11450

$$

ASG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
927 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
&&

.UPDATE...
THIS MORNINGS MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CHAOTIC AND UNUSUAL
SITUATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS BOTH YESTERDAY AND
TODAY. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A MAJOR THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL INYO TO SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND THEN INTO
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES IN AN ARC. ALSO TROUBLING IS THE MID-LEVEL DRY
PUNCH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS LIKELY TO AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY IS
CREATING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO FIRE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA IS JUST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THAT CLOUD SHIELD WHERE INSTABILITY AND THE DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS
IS MAXIMIZED. THIS MEANS THAT DEATH VALLEY...THE NNST AND AREAS
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW MONOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE THISM MORNING. WE ANTICIPATE HAVING AN ABBREVIATED AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE TO FOCUS ON THE CONVECTION AND FLASH FLOOD THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CEILING STAYING MAINLY ABV 5 KFT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SPRING AND SHEEP MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL. THOSE STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY AWAY FROM THE
AIRPORT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE STORMS FROM NORTHERN
MOHAVE...CLARK AND NYE COUNTIES AFFECTING BOTH THE MORMON MESA AND
BEATTY APPROACH CORRIDORS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS
ALONG WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 5-7 KFT WITH STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014/

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST ACROSS INYO/ESMERALDA COUNTY LATER
THIS MORNING. ALSO...MONITORING SOME ACTIVITY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA WHICH IS DRIFTING WEST INTO MOHAVE COUNTY.

AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN NEVADA THAT HAS
BEEN ACTING AS THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
SHIFTING NORTH TODAY. THAT WILL PLACE INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTY
UNDER ADDITIONAL FORCING TODAY SO HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THOSE
AREAS. AWAY FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE
DRIVEN BY HEATING. LOOK FOR STORMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY LATE MORNING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCT BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND HALF INCHES OF RAIN
IN LESS THAN HOUR. DID CONSIDER THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TODAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL PW VALUES BUT EXPECT THOSE VERY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS TO STILL BE ISOLATED. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR REPEAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES DEPEND OF CLOUDS
AND STORMS BUT OVERALL LOOKING FOR NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL LOWS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED WILL BE THOSE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE COME TO SOME AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
FROM MIDWEEK TO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST CONSENSUS INDICATES MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AN INVERTED TROUGH /SHORTWAVE/ IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND REACH OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY. WITH THIS
FEATURE SUPPLYING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING...HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS EVEN
MORE IN THE COMING DAYS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. BEHIND THIS WAVE,
GUIDANCE HINTS AT MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD REDUCE THE MOISTURE AND LIMIT IF NOT ELIMINATE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH JUST ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE AROUND...THEN
EDGING UPWARD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

UPDATE: LERICOS
PREVIOUS: PIERCE/PADDOCK

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
444 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-070700-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
444 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014 /444 AM MST SUN JUL 6 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY, TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
145 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     FLASH FLOOD      11 ESE BAKER            35.25N 115.89W
07/05/2014                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            KELBAKER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. PARK SERVICE
            WORKING ON GETTING IT RE-OPENED. TIME OF REPORT ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

TLERICOS