Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
846 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
&&

.UPDATE...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA A LITTLE PAST
MIDNIGHT AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COME INTO PLAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SHOWERS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY TERMINALS THROUGH 05Z OR 06Z THIS EVENING THEN LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THE REST OF TONIGHT. GUSTS 30-40 KTS FROM NEARBY
THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO 5 KFT UNDER HEAVY RAIN
SHAFTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY TUESDAY MRNG CLOUDS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 10-14 KFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL APPROACH
CORRIDORS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS
AT THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS ALONG
WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 5-7 KFT WITH STRONGER STORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS NOW FIRING AS EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN
DRYER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND MOIST AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT IS GOING TO BE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER 9PM FOR THE NIGHT. TOMORROW
WILL BE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY. EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

THE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE GONE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING
AND OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LESS WEDNESDAY. I AM NOT QUITE READY TO BUY INTO THE GFS WHICH IS
PRETTY DRY AND STABLE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CA AND NV ZONES SO
I KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
FAR WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF INYO
COUNTY. WINDS LOOK TO BE PRETTY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON EXTENT AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
INVERTED TROUGH /SHORTWAVE/ PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...ALBEIT WEAKER THAN ADVERTISED 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS JUST A BIT AS MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BEHIND THIS WAVE, MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SEVERELY LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MOHAVE COUNTY APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY
AREA THAT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM...BUT
GENERALLY AREA-WIDE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SO...HAVE CONTINUED
TO TRIM BACK POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MONSOON MOISTURE
DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST
DAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
325 AM PDT MON JUL 7 2014

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ519>527-NVZ014>022-080700-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
325 AM PDT MON JUL 7 2014 /325 AM MST MON JUL 7 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED
ROADWAY, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
WEATHER HAZARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>