Tornado Warning 7, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
542 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING OR
SLIGHTLY DECREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1500 MDT.

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT.
SECOND...SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROF IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN AND HELPING TO DIMINISH THE
STABILITY. A THIRD TROF WILL APPROACH TOMORROW GIVING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FCST TO DVLP OVR SW SD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL DVLPMNTS...AND THEN MOVE EAST WARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM SE MT ACROSS WRN SD...REPRESENTING A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THIS ZONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER SFC TO 1 KM
SHEAR THAT COULD ENHANCE LOW LVL ROTATION IN SOME STORMS.

FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADEQUATE CAPE AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR FOR
SVR STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. INVERTED V PROG SOUNDINGS
AND CONSISTENT MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST QUITE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE DVLPG CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS INITIATED CONVECTION AT ABOUT THE
RIGHT TIME AND HAS CONSISTENTLY INTENSIFIED THE STORMS QUICKLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN OVR OUR WYOMING COUNTIES AND MOVED THE
STORMS QUICKLY E WARD INTO WRN SD. IN SPITE OF POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LVL ROTATION IN STORMS...THE LCLS ARE HIGH...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

TEMPERATURES WERE HELD CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO POTENTIALLY WET GROUND. SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE DRYING OVER THE AREA AND AN END TO PRECIP. KEPT SOME
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY. WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS A RESULT FROM TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THIS FEATURES UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK IN MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...PATTERN STILL FAVORS
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH IFR VSBY/LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
633 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-141300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
633 AM MDT (733 AM CDT) FRI JUN 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
   CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WHERE
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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