Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
308 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHEAST MT...THE BLACK HILLS AREA... SOUTHWEST SD...AND
NORTHERN NEB. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHEAST MT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING PASSING
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WESTWARD TO THE
ROCKIES. KUDX RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...WITH STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN WY...SOUTHEAST
MT...AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
BRISK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS.

ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA...AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE
CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG IN MANY AREAS LATE TODAY AND 2000
TO 3000 J/KG LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...
WITH THE BEST SHEAR GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD UNTIL 03Z. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM SEVERE STORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR OR ABOVE
150 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE WATCH AREA... AND RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY AMOUNTS OF
RAIN OVER AREAS THAT REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FAR NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF
WESTERN SD. THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS LATER TODAY AND EVENTUAL POTENTIAL FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE MAIN TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR SVR
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...THOUGH TO A LESSER EXTENT. THE MAIN UPPER
TROF AXIS PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

A STRONG IMPULSE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCT
SHRA/TS ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD THIS AFT/EVE. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AN NEAR TS WED AFT/EVE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR OR ABOVE 150 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE IN THE WATCH AREA... AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING STORMS
COULD LEAD TO SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
AREAS THAT REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FAR NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH
OF WESTERN SD. THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS LATER TODAY AND EVENTUAL POTENTIAL FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-024>026-028>031-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR WYZ054-056-057-
     071.

&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
608 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-261300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
608 AM MDT (708 AM CDT) WED JUN 25 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
   FOR FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
322 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             1 NW PIEDMONT           44.24N 103.41W
06/25/2014  M1.25 INCH       MEADE              SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

POJORLIE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
337 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             1 NW PIEDMONT           44.24N 103.41W
06/25/2014  M2.25 INCH       MEADE              SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

POJORLIE