Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CENTRAL ND TO KPHP TO KUNR TO NORTH CENTRAL WY. FEATURE BEING
DRIVEN BY DYING CONVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST
ND/NORTHWEST SD. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE OVER CWA DEPICTED BY
12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION SOMEWHAT ON THE SD
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AROUND 1KJ/KG MLCAPE DEVELOPS WITH
25-50J/KG MLCIN OVER WESTERN SD BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION
OF BOUNDARY/HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD KICK OFF STORMS SHORTLY AFTER
18Z OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...BUT DID ADJUST
TIMING FOR POPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA INTO NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA IS BRINGING SCATTERED -TSRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA/SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

SCATTERED -TSRA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MLCAPE OF
750-1250J/KG. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE
BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIMIT -TSRA COVERAGE. BEST CHANCE WILL
COME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS...ALONG WITH
STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE ABOVE 25C
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS
NEAR 90F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CAP...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE...A RELATIVELY
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED. HAVE TRENDED LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS
LARGE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. VERY WARM TEMPS WILL
PERSIST EARLY ON THURSDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...
COOLING TEMPS AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WESTERN AREAS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AS
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY PROGRESSES NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME SEVERE WEATHER CERTAINLY LOOKS
POSSIBLE IN THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE BETTER
DAYS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF BY THE WEEKEND...BUT
STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE BLACK HILLS AREA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL THEN DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
NORTHWEST SD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
408 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2014

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-281400-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
408 AM MDT (508 AM CDT) TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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