Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
217 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS
RATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE
ADVERTISING FOR TODAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT OUTFLOW FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS MAINLY PINAL COUNTY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE RAIN TODAY WAS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IN
TRACKS EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW AND
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON AND NOGALES.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER 20/03Z.  THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY FROM KTUS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 KT
EASTERN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTER 18Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING KDUG.
SOME AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. BY
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
301 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

AZZ507-508-511-512-192245-
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT
AZ-EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING DOUGLAS/WILLCOX
AZ-GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT GRAHAM AZ-UPPER SAN
PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
301 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM MST...

AT 255 PM MST...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL WERE TRACKING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH SOUTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE WILLCOX AREA. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS NORTHWEST
OF WILLCOX...JUST WEST OF ATWOOD ROAD AND NORTH OF ELLIS RANCH ROAD.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WILLCOX...COCHISE AND I-10 AT
MILEPOST 355.

LAT...LON 3241 11023 3242 10963 3201 10945 3190 10984
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 143DEG 4KT 3209 10974

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
401 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

AZZ509-192345-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ-
401 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM MST...

AT 352 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF SAFFORD. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAFFORD AND SOLOMON.

LAT...LON 3280 10977 3295 10957 3278 10939 3271 10957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 180DEG 0KT 3281 10955

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
448 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE TUCSON             32.28N 110.89W
10/19/2014                   PIMA               AZ   UTILITY COMPANY

            POLES AND POWER LINES DOWN FT LOWELL TO RIVER RD FROM
            EARLIER WIND. REPORTED BY TEP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1400130

CERNIGLIA

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