Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXISTS...AND BLOWING DUST MAY HAPPEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AS PER BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER
VALUES AVERAGING NEARLY 1.30 INCHES AND FAIRLY DECENT ELY STEERING
FLOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THIS
EVENING. ONE CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST. THUS...A BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR PIMA/SANTA CRUZ/SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS FRI MORNING.

THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SELY
FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO. VARIOUS
NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI
AFTERNOON WOULD BE SOUTH-TO-WEST OF TUCSON AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIMITED DRYING ENCROACHING UPON
FAR SERN SECTIONS. AT ANY RATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE FRI NIGHT.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WRN CONUS INTO THE SRN
CONUS PLAINS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS SE AZ SAT-THUR. 03/12Z GFS/ECMWF GAVE NO CLEAR
INDICATION REGARDING ENHANCED CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAYS VERSUS
REDUCED DAILY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THUS...EXPECT SCATTERED
MOSTLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON
WWD/NWWD. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS TO ABOUT 45 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND 8-15K
FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
    AZZ501>505-515.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 PM MST THU JUL 3 2014

AZZ509-510-032330-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD
AZ-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN
MEADOW AZ-
355 PM MST THU JUL 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND EASTERN
GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MST...

AT 348 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON...OR 32 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
BLOWING DUST. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLIFTON...MORENCI...GUTHRIE...
DUNCAN AND FRANKLIN.

LAT...LON 3261 10929 3313 10960 3330 10906 3263 10907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 054DEG 30KT 3306 10928

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