Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Tucson, AZ

639 
WWUS55 KTWC 272149
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
249 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

AZC019-023-272215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140727T2215Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-
249 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PIMA AND NORTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

AT 247 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF ELGIN...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF SIERRA 
VISTA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE HAIL ALONG STATE ROUTE 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 11078 3188 11066 3180 11046 3163 11052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 000DEG 1KT 3171 11057

$$

KD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S ACTIVITY
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD)
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS.
IN ADDITION AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE
COMING IN ON OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE
ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN AREAS AND STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL LOCAL FLASH FLOOD THREATS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER
29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
111 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

AZZ509-510-272130-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD
AZ-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN
MEADOW AZ-
111 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MST...

AT 106 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO ABOUT TO
ENTER EASTERN GREENLEE COUNTY...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HANNAGAN
MEADOW...BLUE...HIGHWAY 191 FROM NEAR CLIFTON NORTHWARD.

LAT...LON 3308 10904 3309 10929 3372 10941 3374 10936
      3377 10904 3376 10903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 100DEG 13KT 3343 10915

MEYER