Red Flag Warning 22, NWS Tucson, AZ

688 
WWUS85 KTWC 232045
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST FRI MAY 23 2014

AZZ152-240200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-140524T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
145 PM MST FRI MAY 23 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO 
  THIRDS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THIS INCLUDES COCHISE COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
  EVENING. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 TO 13 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP OR ARE ONGOING WILL HAVE THE 
   POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
   WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID AND ERRATIC FIRE GROWTH.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

$$


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427 
WWUS85 KTWC 240205
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
705 PM MST FRI MAY 23 2014

AZZ152-240315-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0022.000000T0000Z-140524T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
705 PM MST FRI MAY 23 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

ALTHOUGH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO IN COCHISE COUNTY...THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THAT
PROMPTED THE RED FLAG WARNING HAVE DECREASED BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST.

$$


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI MAY 23 2014

...CORRECTED HEADLINES BELOW...

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS A RESULT OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.  THE STORM WILL
ALSO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  DRIER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK AFTER THE LOW EXITS THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PINWHEELING AROUND NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY MAKE VERY SLOW
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  CURRENTLY HAVE A NICE
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW AND
BEGINNING TO PIVOT UP INTO OUR AREA.  THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO KEEP
THE WINDS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA TODAY FOR ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY...THE FINAL DAY WITH GRADIENT WIND RELATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THE UPPER LOW IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  CURRENTLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE SSW FLOW WITH JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE.  WITH THE LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING...CURRENT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WOULD EXPECT A BIT MORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY.
STILL A RATHER LOW CHANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THOUGH.  AGAIN WITH THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AND FAIRLY QUICK
STORM MOTION...WOULD EXPECT VERY LIMIT AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE LOW IS PASSING OVERHEAD WHICH PUSHES THE STRONG
WINDS INTO NEW MEXICO FOR A LIGHTER WIND DAY.  THIS WILL ALSO BE A
GENERALLY UNSTABLE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO POP UP WITH HEATING.  WITH A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SLOWER STORM MOTION...WOULD ANTICIPATE A BETTER CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS UNDER ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

WITH CONTINUED SLOW STORM MOTION EXPECTED...I ADDED A CHANCE OF
STORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVER THE WHITES THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS IS DUE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
IN THE CYCLONIC AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM.  HARD TO RULE SOME CONVECTION UNDER THOSE CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

THEN SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
QUICKLY...PEAKING AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  THAT TRANSLATES TO NEAR 100 IN THE TUCSON AREA.  THEN
THINGS APPEAR TO GET INTERESTING AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON AN IDEA OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR AREA.  IF
THIS SCENARIO WERE TO PLAY OUT THAT WAY IT WOULD BRING A THREAT OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA AGAIN LATE THURSDAY ONWARD.  WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE TIME APPROACHES.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. SCT-BKN MID AND CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS AREA WIDE...LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT THROUGH 23/15Z. SW WINDS INCREASING THEREAFTER
THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR KDUG...WITH WINDS 22 KT
GUSTING 32 BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF KTUS. CURRENT TAFS DON'T HAVE TS MENTION AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
OCCUR AND OVERALL COVERAGE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
24/03Z BECOMING LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOW AS IT ENTERS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING YET ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. WINDS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED AREAWIDE. DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH
THE INCREASED WINDS..A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 18Z
THROUGH 02Z TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF 151 MAY MEET CRITERIA AT TIMES TODAY...YET DID
NOT LOOK EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING THE ZONE TO THE
WARNING.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A
BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL STILL LIKELY
BE ON THE LOW SIDE IN GENERAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREAFTER...EXPECT
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
AZZ152.

&&

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