Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Tucson, AZ

651 
WWUS85 KTWC 200223
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
723 PM MST MON MAY 19 2014

AZZ151>153-201400-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140520T0200Z/
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0019.140520T1800Z-140521T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
CORONADO NF-TDC-ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153
NORTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
WHITE AND GILA MOUNTAINS-APACHE SITGREAVES NF-SDC-
723 PM MST MON MAY 19 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR COCHISE...GRAHAM...
GREENLEE...SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND EASTERN PINAL 
COUNTIES...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. A RED 
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY IS FOR ALL OF FIRE
  ZONES 151...152 AND 153 INCLUDING COCHISE...GRAHAM...
  GREENLEE...SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND EASTERN PINAL
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST. THE
  STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AND 5
  PM.

* 20-FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40
  MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...4 TO 9 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP OR ARE ONGOING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
  TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT
   WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID AND ERRATIC FIRE GROWTH.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD
OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

$$

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386 
WWUS85 KTWC 201009
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
309 AM MST TUE MAY 20 2014

AZZ151>153-202200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0019.140520T1800Z-140521T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
CORONADO NF-TDC-ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153
NORTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
WHITE AND GILA MOUNTAINS-APACHE SITGREAVES NF-SDC-
309 AM MST TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY...AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
COCHISE...GRAHAM... GREENLEE...SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND
EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS FOR ALL OF FIREZONES
  151...152 AND 153 INCLUDING COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE...SANTA
  CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES. THIS IS NOT
  EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE WIND BEING THE
  LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT EACH ZONE ARE
  EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST. THE
  STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AND 5
  PM.

* 20-FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
  35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON MINIMUM 5 TO 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP OR ARE ONGOING WILL HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
   WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID AND ERRATIC FIRE GROWTH.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

$$

CERNIGLIA
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

477 
WWUS85 KTWC 202151
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 PM MST TUE MAY 20 2014

AZZ151>153-210200-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140521T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
CORONADO NF-TDC-ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153
NORTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
WHITE AND GILA MOUNTAINS-APACHE SITGREAVES NF-SDC-
251 PM MST TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY...AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
COCHISE...GRAHAM... GREENLEE...SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND
EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS FOR ALL OF FIREZONES 
  151...152 AND 153 INCLUDING COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE... 
  SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND EASTERN PINAL COUNTIES. THIS IS 
  NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH THE WIND BEING THE 
  LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT EACH ZONE ARE 
  EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. 

* TIMING...THE RED FLAG WARNING IS FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST. THE 
   STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 
   AND 5 PM. 

* 20-FOOT WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 
   AROUND 35 MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AFTERNOON MINIMUM 5 TO 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP OR ARE ONGOING WILL HAVE THE 
   POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
   WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID AND ERRATIC FIRE GROWTH.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

$$

KD
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

969 
WWUS85 KTWC 210151
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
651 PM MST TUE MAY 20 2014

AZZ151>153-210300-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140521T0200Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 151
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY-
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-WESTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
CORONADO NF-TDC-ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153
NORTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
WHITE AND GILA MOUNTAINS-APACHE SITGREAVES NF-SDC-
651 PM MST TUE MAY 20 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING. 

ALTHOUGH BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON...20-FOOT WINDS HAVE
DECREASED WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...THE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST.

$$


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST MON MAY 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDING WITH A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE TO
YESTERDAY (PAINFULLY DRY). PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 1/5 OF AN INCH.
SURFACE STREAMLINES FROM THE GULF INTO LOWER DESERTS WITH DEWPTS
INTO THE 20S AND 30S WESTERN AREAS...DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS EAST.
EASTERN AREAS WILL PROBABLY CRATER BELOW 0 AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE TEMPERATURE COLUMN...WE SHOULD FALL
SHORT OF 100 AT TIA TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT
ENHANCEMENT. NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOW WELL TO OUR EAST...AND A PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTH
OFF THE OREGON COAST. FALLING HEIGHT/THICKNESS VALUES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE TO A DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DECREASE...HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS WEEK...DROPPING BELOW
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.

AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ALOFT INCREASED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TUESDAY EXPECTING THE STRONGEST WINDS. IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM 10AM TO 7PM...AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM STALLING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY ON HOW FAST THE
SYSTEM WILL BE EJECTED EAST. THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEING PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MORE STATIONARY. IF THE SYSTEM LINGERS WRAPPING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
COULD ENHANCE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO THE REGION ENHANCING SURFACE WINDS...INCREASING THIS
MORNING TO SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-40 KTS UNTIL
20/02Z...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BRING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK. WITH THE SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY
LEVELS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY
PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON...AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. ANOTHER OTHER CONCERN IS THAT WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY
REMAIN GUSTY IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OR
EXPOSED PEAKS...WHERE STRONG WINDS MAY EXIST MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATER THIS WEEK WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. POTENTIAL DRY
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ151>153.
      FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
       EVENING FOR AZZ151>153.

&&

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN