Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Tucson, AZ

746 
WWUS85 KTWC 160243
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
743 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

AZZ152-161000-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0010.140416T2000Z-140417T0400Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
743 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MST
WEDNESDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR EASTERN
COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES.

* AFFECTED AREA...EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM
  COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY.

* TIMING...ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN 
   AROUND 1 PM AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20-FOOT WINDS WITH 
   GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE 
   EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4 TO 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
   WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID AND ERRATIC FIRE GROWTH.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

$$


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147 
WWUS85 KTWC 161001
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
301 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

AZZ152-161815-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0010.140416T2000Z-140417T0400Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
301 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM MST THIS EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR EASTERN
COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES. 

* AFFECTED AREA...EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM 
  COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY. 

* TIMING...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 1 PM TODAY AND
  ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

* WINDS...20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20-FOOT WINDS WITH GUSTS
  OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
  TO BE BETWEEN 4 TO 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
   WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID AND ERRATIC FIRE GROWTH.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

374 
WWUS85 KTWC 161809
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1109 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

AZZ152-170400-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0010.140416T2000Z-140417T0400Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
1109 AM MST WED APR 16 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM
  COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY.

* TIMING...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 1 PM TODAY AND
  ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

* WINDS...20 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST TO WEST 20-FOOT WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
  35 TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
  EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 4 TO 8 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
   WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID AND ERRATIC FIRE GROWTH.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

100 
WWUS85 KTWC 162327
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
427 PM MST WED APR 16 2014

AZZ152-170030-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140417T0400Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152
SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN CARLOS APACHE NATION 
IN GRAHAM COUNTY-CORONADO NF-SAFFORD BLM-TDC-
427 PM MST WED APR 16 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

WINDS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA HAVE REMAINED BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA AND ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THOUGH WITHOUT
THE WIND THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS LOWER.

$$


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
829 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WAS SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WERE ALSO BEING REPORTED AT MANY
LOCATIONS DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODELS SHOWED
THIS GRADIENT RELAXING THIS AFTERNOON FOR LESS WIND.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN
THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFO.

&&

.AVIATION...A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL BRING SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SE AZ THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ELY/SELY
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME WLY/NWLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN GREENLEE...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...AND
MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
FIRE GROWTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PROVIDE GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AZ MAINLY FROM
MID-MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME WLY/NWLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AS SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL CONTINUE WED AS RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS
WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY WED EVENING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST SHOULD
OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY WED EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUE
WED NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

15/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR MORNING. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THUR AND THUR NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF WERE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ADVECTING FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THUR NIGHT-FRI. THUS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THUR NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI. HAVE
NOTED THAT THESE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE DECREASED QPF/S ACROSS THE
AREA FRI-SAT VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA POP FIELDS.

THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN
MAINTAINED MOSTLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY DRY
MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS SAT NIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT NIGHT-MON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS
MON...THEN EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT DAILY TEMP CHANGES WED-THUR. COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI...THEN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

&&

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