Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

685 
WWUS85 KTWC 191502
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
802 AM MST WED FEB 19 2014


AZZ146-148-191615-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FW.W.0001.140219T2000Z-140220T0300Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-GRAHAM COUNTY NORTH OF GILA RIVER-
APACHE NF/SAN CARLOS BIA/SDC-ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148
GRAHAM COUNTY SOUTH OF GILA RIVER-TUCSON/MARANA/GREEN
VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ-COCHISE COUNTY-CORONADO NF/
SAFFORD BLM/TDC-
802 AM MST WED FEB 19 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

THE TROUGH THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 AND 148 IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
REDUCE DAYTIME MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THUS...WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG THRESHOLDS OVER THIS
AREA AND THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THERE COULD STILL
BE AN ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO THAT BRIEFLY HITS RED FLAG WINDS BUT
THIS WILL NOT BE OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA. FIRE CREWS SHOULD STILL
USE CAUTION TODAY. 

$$


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 AM MST WED FEB 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...AFTER A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AT OUR LATITUDE WITH CONSIDERABLE
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE AT TIMES...BUT REMAINING DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. AN IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL GENERATE
A BREEZY GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. WELL
BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS BUT JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN FAR EASTERN AREAS BORDERING NEW MEXICO.

EXPECT VERY MODEST CAA TO COMBINE WITH WEAK HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS
FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRONT SIDE
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEFLECT STORMS
TOWARD DEEPER INLAND TRAJECTORY RESOLUTIONS...MISSING US WELL NORTH
AND EAST. GRADUAL WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN AS THIS HAPPENS...BACK TO
AROUND 10-14 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS ABOVE 18K FT AGL THRU THIS AFTERNOON OR 19/22Z...THEN
CLEARING FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS...EXCEPT
THIS AFTERNOON WLY 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ESPECIALLY
E OF KTUS. THE STRONGEST WIND SHOULD OCCUR IN THE SAFFORD VALLEY
VICINITY KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS AREA TODAY...ENHANCING WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SAFFORD VALLEY. GENERALLY EXPECTING 15-25 MPH 20 FT WINDS ACROSS
THOSE LOCATIONS WITH RH VALUES BELOW 15% RESULTING IN AREAS OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHERN GREENLEE
AND SOUTHEAST GRAHAM COUNTIES.

FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...EVEN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS COMMON...RESULTING IN VERY
LOW RH CONDITIONS DAY AND NIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW SEASONALLY NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM UNTIL
    8 PM FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 146 AND THE EASTERN
    PORTION OF FIRE ZONE 148.

&&

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MEYER/RASMUSSEN