Freeze Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

156 
WWUS75 KTWC 250446
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
946 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

...FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN PIMA COUNTY
TUESDAY MORNING INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER TUCSON AREA...

AZZ504-251100-
/O.CON.KTWC.FZ.W.0005.141125T0700Z-141125T1500Z/
TUCSON METRO AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TUCSON...GREEN VALLEY...MARANA...VAIL
946 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY DAMAGE OR 
  KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION. OUTDOOR WATER PIPES SHOULD ALSO BE 
  WRAPPED...DRAINED...OR ALLOWED TO DRIP SLOWLY TO PREVENT 
  POSSIBLE BURSTING. 

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY 
  RANGE FROM 30 TO 34 DEGREES...WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN 
  OUTLYING AREAS AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WINDS MAY BE JUST 
  STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN SOME 
  LOCATIONS. 

* TIMING...NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE 
  BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING. 

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT 
  WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON AND CLICK ON THE DETAILED HAZARDS TAB 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL KILL SENSITIVE CROPS AND VEGETATION.
COVER THEM...IF POSSIBLE...WITH CLOTH SHEETS OR BLANKETS TO
PROTECT THEM FROM FREEZING.

&&

$$


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409 
WWUS75 KTWC 251209
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
509 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014


AZZ504-251315-
/O.CAN.KTWC.FZ.W.0005.000000T0000Z-141125T1500Z/
TUCSON METRO AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TUCSON...GREEN VALLEY...MARANA...VAIL
509 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING. 

AT 5 AM WINDS WERE TOO STRONG IN MOST LOCATIONS TO ALLOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS
AND OUTLYING AREAS WILL FREEZE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED.

$$


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA AND COMBINE TO USHER IN COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING
TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RATHER MILD THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR TONIGHT...WITH A FREEZE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER
TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND SKC THOUGH A FEW CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THRU THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. TOMORROW MORNING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS
STAYING UP. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE NEAR OR OVERHEAD
THRU THE FORECAST KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET. THAT BEING
SAID...LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE INTO THE AREA AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH A BIT MORE COLD
AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS AIRMASS IS FOR THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR IS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT
SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW SPILLING OVER FROM NEW MEXICO. IT WILL
HAPPEN TUESDAY MORNING...AND PRECISELY WHEN WILL DETERMINE IF TUCSON
FREEZES OR NOT. AS OF RIGHT NOW WE HAVE 34 FOR TIA TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS KICKING IN AROUND 3 OR 4 AM PREVENTING A
FREEZE. EVEN IF THIS WORKS OUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH AREAS AROUND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING OUTLYING AND WIND SHELTERED AREAS
AROUND TUCSON METRO THAT MAY FREEZE TO WARRANT A FREEZE WATCH AS A
HEADS-UP. ALSO IT SHOULD BE NOTED IT WON'T TAKE MUCH WIND TO TAKE
THE EDGE OFF...7 TO 10 MPH WOULD DO IT.

ELSEWHERE OUR TYPICAL COLD PRONE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING
MOST OF COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES (AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PINAL COUNTY) SHOULD EASILY REACH FREEZE AND/OR
HARD FREEZE LEVELS.

THIS COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A
RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS A STRONG WARMING TREND THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AROUND 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WHICH PUTS TUCSON
AROUND 80 OR SO.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOPING A SOLID TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DAYS 7-10 TO START DECEMBER. THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT ANY
SEASONAL WEATHER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT INTO
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR AZZ504 INCLUDING EASTERN PIMA COUNTY.

&&

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PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER/MEADOWS/CARLAW