Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Tucson, AZ

465 
WGUS75 KTWC 151939
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1239 PM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

AZC019-021-152045-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140715T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
1239 PM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 1230 PM MST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE FINALLY DIMINISHING AROUND AND 
NORTH OF THE ORO VALLEY AREA. EARLIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 
1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
SADDLEBROOKE...ORACLE JUNCTION...DOVE MOUNTAIN...CATALINA STATE 
PARK...CATALINA AND ORO VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3269 11125 3252 11077 3235 11081 3239 11119

$$

MEYER

228 
WGUS75 KTWC 152037
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 PM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

AZC019-021-152046-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140715T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
137 PM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL AND NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 136 PM MST SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN THE ORO VALLEY AREA 
AND NORTHWARD. HEAVY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD 
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM MST.

LAT...LON 3269 11125 3252 11077 3235 11081 3239 11119

$$

MEYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA BEFORE MOISTURE VALUES START TO LOWER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WET STORMS TODAY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN. DRIER
AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN TO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WET ATMOSPHERE WITH WEAK REMNANT MCC CIRCULATION
SHIFTING FROM COCHISE INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS
PROBABLY A LITTLE BETTER AT THIS POINT THAN WHAT WAS SHOWING ON THE
12Z SOUNDING. BOTTOM LOADED HEAVY RAIN TYPE STORMS. NOT AS MUCH A
THREAT FOR SEVERE...BUT A LOT OF MOMENTUM WITH WET MICROBURST
POSSIBLE.

SOME CLEARING ALREADY IN EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING MUCH OF COCHISE
COUNTY. THEY WILL REFIRE THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
OUTFLOW ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING BACK INTO THE
CURRENTLY ACTIVE AREAS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH A CONSIDERATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS PW VALUES START
TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED STORMS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATING
THAT PW VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AREA WIDE. THAT WOULD
LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
WHILE THE AREA DRYS OUT A BIT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ITS BEEN OVER A 10 DAYS WEEK SINCE
TUCSON HAS RECORDED AN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH.

MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SELY. THUS EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.

THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE PACKAGE...LOOKS DOWN RIGHT HOT WITH BOTH GFS ON TUE AND ECMWF
ON WED...BASED ON 850-700 MB THICKNESS...HINTING AT 110 IN TUCSON.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. STORMS
BECOMING NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS/MT OBSCURATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35-45
KTS IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA. AFT 16/05Z STORMS BECMG ISOLD.
OTHERWISE...SFC WIND GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECASTED
TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD PICK BACK UP AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1026 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SSW ORO VALLEY        32.34N 111.02W
07/15/2014                   PIMA               AZ   TWITTER

            CAR STALLED ON ROADWAY DUE TO FLOOD WATERS NEAR INA AND
            LA CHOLLA ROADS IN TUCSON. REPORT AND PICTURE SENT VIA
            TWITTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1400059

BROST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1056 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE TUCSON INTERNATIO 32.15N 110.93W
07/15/2014                   PIMA               AZ   TWITTER

            WATER RESCUE REPORTED AT DREXEL AND CAMPBELL ROADS.
            WATER APPEARS TO BE 6 INCHES TO 1 FOOT HIGH BASED ON
            TWITTER PHOTO. REPORT SENT VIA TWITTER FROM LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1400060

BROST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1136 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

AZZ502-505-151930-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK
AZ-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
1136 AM MST TUE JUL 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
1230 PM MST...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY
WERE LIKELY GENERATING AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR I-10. VISIBILITIES
MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 1 MILE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE...ELOY...WHITE HORSE PASS...PICACHO
PEAK...PICACHO AND FRIENDLY CORNERS.

LAT...LON 3258 11131 3253 11179 3277 11178 3277 11174
      3274 11173 3275 11166 3277 11160 3289 11148
      3299 11132 3299 11131

MEYER