Dust Storm Warning 6, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON WESTERLY
FLOW TUESDAY ONWARD FOR A DRYING PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER THAT WAS
WEST OF TUCSON HAS LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WHERE THERE WAS SUN...LIKE IN COCHISE
COUNTY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND HAVE BEEN
PUSHING WEST INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1"-1.50". OVERALL A NICE MONSOON DAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUED TO RISE FROM THIS MORNING WITH
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 1.50"-1.80".
THE EXCEPTION IN THE WHITES WERE VALUES WERE STILL RUNNING JUST
BELOW ONE INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

AFTER PEAKING AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE EARLIER THIS MORNING...
NORBERT HAS ENCOUNTERED COOLER WATERS AND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO CAT
2. THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM NHC INDICATES THAT NORBERT WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NNW INTO COOLER WATERS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
THE NNW MOVEMENT OF NORBERT...WITH VALUES OVER 2" WEST OF TUCSON.

AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST POTENTIAL TIME FOR HEAVY
RAINERS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BEING
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
NORBERT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT THEY WILL BE HARD TO PIN POINT AND TIME.
STILL HOLDING OFF...ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE STATE...ON HOISTING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THICK CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT HEATING.
SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFT TO PONDER.

THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORBERT WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
DROPS DOWN INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TROF TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
TUESDAY.

DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SW. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/23Z.
SCT-NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THRU 07/06Z...THEN ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA TIL
07/14Z. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOME GUSTS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MOISTURE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS GENERALLY
WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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