Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL AFFECT ALL OF OUR OKLAHOMA
TAF SITES. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS... WITH INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... AFFECTING OUR ARKANSAS SITES BEGINNING BY
AROUND 9Z. FOLLOWING THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS... RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE AREA BUT
IT IS A LATE ARRIVAL AND THUS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED QLCS TYPE TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH...IT IS A
RACE AGAINST TIME WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AS ELEVATED STORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WILL BE APPROACHING
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE INITIAL STORMS MAY POSE
A HAIL THREAT...WITH A MARGINAL WIND THREAT STILL EXPECTED IN THE
NORTH WITH THE EVENTUAL SQUALL LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO UP SKY COVER OVERNIGHT AND
TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT TO FIT THE OBSERVED
AND EXPECTED TRENDS. WE WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT STORMS SO THE CURRENT READINGS
WILL BE THE FORECAST LOWS AT LEAST IN THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS WARMER NOW...SO THEY WILL SEE THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCUR FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF STORMS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENTERED INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS AND
GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS...EXCESS RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT /OKCFFATSA/
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY
         RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING MONDAY...WITH STORMS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
TO THE EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE
AN HOUR RANGE WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

OKZ054-059-064-065-130545-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CREEK...WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 1150 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 31 MILES WEST OF PAWNEE TO 37 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MILFAY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MASON...WELTY...OSAGE...FAIRFAX...
BURBANK...PAWNEE...JENNINGS...TERLTON...HALLETT...MARAMEC...
BLACKBURN...SKEDEE...CLEVELAND...RALSTON...BRISTOW...MILFAY...
DEPEW...SHAMROCK...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON...SILVER CITY...MANNFORD AND
QUAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3680 9650 3555 9623 3552 9663 3615 9663
      3615 9682 3624 9682 3624 9692 3633 9693
      3633 9704 3651 9704 3656 9691 3658 9690
      3659 9692 3658 9700 3659 9705 3665 9707
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 253DEG 29KT 3650 9728 3554 9712

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

OKZ071-073-130615-
MCINTOSH OK-PITTSBURG OK-
1233 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MCINTOSH AND PITTSBURG

AT 1233 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HANNA...VERNON...MCALESTER...
KIOWA...PITTSBURG...BLANCO...ASHLAND...SAVANNA...HAYWOOD...BACHE...
ALDERSON...KREBS...ARPELAR...SCIPIO...BLOCKER...CROWDER...INDIANOLA
AND MCALESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3468 9589 3468 9610 3505 9610 3507 9607
      3509 9607 3513 9601 3514 9602 3516 9599
      3530 9598 3506 9544 3502 9548 3502 9551
      3499 9551 3459 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 215DEG 42KT 3467 9611

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1252 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

OKZ054-055-130630-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1252 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 1251 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SHIDLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...SHIDLER...APPERSON...WEBB
CITY...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...HULAH...GRAINOLA...OSAGE
HILLS STATE PARK...WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK AND SUNSET LAKE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3700 9585 3651 9644 3677 9682 3679 9676
      3694 9676 3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0551Z 226DEG 31KT 3677 9660