Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2014

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

September 17, 2014Sebastian County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Sep 17, 2014, 8:13 PM CDT for Sebastian County, Arkansas. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 17, 2014, 8:13 PM CDT (01:13 UTC)
Expired: Sep 17, 2014, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Sebastian County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 239 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -239 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1251 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 189 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Sep 17, 6:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 6:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...LIKELY WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN AND NEAR STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS FOR TAF SITES (EXCEPT KMLC)
AFTER 08Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AR IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERACT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY
STRENGTHENS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AS A WAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RESULTANT FORECAST WILL TREND HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP
CHANCES TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK / WESTERN AR.

A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THE REMNANT
IMPULSE FROM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTERACT W/ A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDING
OVER SOUTHERN TX WILL ALSO BE DRAWN NORTH AND EASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THE EXACT INTERACTION W/ THESE FEATURES HAS YET TO BE
DETERMINED...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A TREND THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION STALLS TO OUR WEST AND THUS THE HEAVIER PRECIP AXIS.
WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LOCATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAS YET TO BE EXACTLY DETERMINED.

ONCE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES A PERIOD OF SEASONABLY
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  88  68  88 /  10  40  10  10
FSM   67  87  67  85 /  30  50  10  10
MLC   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
BVO   67  86  66  88 /  10  40  10  10
FYV   64  81  63  82 /  40  50  10  10
BYV   63  79  62  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   68  87  66  86 /  30  50  10  10
MIO   67  82  66  85 /  30  50  10  10
F10   69  88  68  87 /  10  40  10  10
HHW   70  88  68  87 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 4:22 PM CDT, 3 hours 51 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
422 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
422 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH THE CONCERN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS TURNING MORE TOWARD
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXIT THE REGION. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD AGAIN BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE PLAINS AND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE REGION. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 5:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
546 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ001-010-172330-
BENTON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
546 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN BENTON AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON

AT 547 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER OAK GROVE...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...HICKS...SHADY GROVE...WALNUT GROVE...HARMON...
FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...WEST FORK...PRAIRIE GROVE...FARMINGTON...
HOGEYE...ARNETT...SULPHUR CITY...BLACK OAK...GREENLAND...VINEY
GROVE...SAVOY...WHEELER...JOHNSON...TONTITOWN...ELM SPRINGS...OAK
GROVE...PRAIRIE GROVE BATTLEFIELD STATE PARK AND DRAKE FIELD AIRPORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3589 9399 3590 9437 3622 9434 3624 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 347DEG 14KT 3618 9420

Local storm report, Sep 17, 6:08 PM CDT, 2 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
608 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
09/17/2014  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JDS

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 6:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-180000-
ADAIR OK-CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
633 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN ADAIR

AT 634 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MORROW...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ODELL...LINCOLN...STRICKLER...
MORROW...CLYDE...CANEHILL AND DEVILS DEN STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3576 9418 3569 9451 3595 9459 3602 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 356DEG 6KT 3587 9448

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 6:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

OKZ062-180015-
MAYES OK-
634 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MAYES

AT 634 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PRYOR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PRYOR AND SNOWDALE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3626 9513 3616 9543 3628 9544 3641 9543
      3644 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 331DEG 7KT 3637 9539

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 7:40 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
740 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ072-076-180115-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
740 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 740 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF BRUSHY TO SHIBLEY TO TONEY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...COTTONWOOD...GANS...MULDROW...ROLAND...BRUSHY...MOFFETT...
ROCK ISLAND...SPIRO...POCOLA...SCULLYVILLE...BRADEN...COWLINGTON...
ARKOMA...PLEASANT HILL...MILLTOWN...MILL CREEK...CONCORD...
MULBERRY...CHARLESTON...BRANCH...URSULA...PETER PENDER...VESTA...
MEG...CECIL...TONEY...LONELM...CRAVENS...FORT SMITH...HACKETT...
GREENWOOD...BARLING...LAVACA...WITCHERVILLE...WASHBURN...BURNVILLE...
JENSON...EXCELSIOR...BONANZA...FORT CHAFFEE...JENNY LIND...RYE
HILL...BLOOMER...CENTRAL CITY...VAN BUREN...ALMA...KIBLER...
SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER...FIGURE FIVE...DORA AND FORT SMITH REGIONAL
AIRPORT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3531 9386 3531 9391 3523 9392 3523 9393
      3522 9402 3518 9402 3509 9437 3527 9478
      3556 9477 3551 9429 3558 9385
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 002DEG 20KT 3552 9467 3542 9430
          3547 9396

Special weather statement, Sep 17, 8:13 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
813 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ020-029-OKZ076-180200-
FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-
813 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 814 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BRADEN TO RYE HILL TO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF URSULA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CAMERON...ROCK ISLAND...POCOLA...BRADEN...
CROSSROADS...MILLTOWN...CHARLESTON...BRANCH...URSULA...VESTA...
HACKETT...GREENWOOD...BARLING...LAVACA...ARKOLA...HUNTINGTON...
MIDLAND...DAYTON...WITCHERVILLE...WASHBURN...BURNVILLE...JENSON...
EXCELSIOR...MANSFIELD...BONANZA...FORT CHAFFEE...JENNY LIND...RYE
HILL...BLOOMER AND CENTRAL CITY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH.

LAT...LON 3523 9393 3522 9402 3513 9404 3514 9413
      3510 9413 3507 9422 3505 9422 3504 9425
      3504 9457 3530 9454 3535 9423 3540 9402
      3526 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 335DEG 10KT 3528 9451 3527 9434
          3534 9406

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 17, 7:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Sequoyah	26 min
Sep 17, 7:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sequoyah	35 min
Sep 17, 8:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore, Sequoyah	29 min
Sep 17, 8:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	39 min
Sep 17, 8:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Muskogee	44 min
Sep 17, 9:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	45 min
Sep 17, 9:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	47 min
Sep 17, 10:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer	39 min
Sep 17, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	45 min
Sep 17, 10:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer	49 min
Sep 17, 10:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	47 min
Sep 17, 11:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	48 min
Sep 18, 2:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	48 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2014 Every special weather statement in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.