Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS AND VARIOUS SFC BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA
WILL YIELD A CONVECTIVE MESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXPECTED TREND IS ONGOING CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER UPTICK LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
MORNING CONVECTION...MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE LIKELY.
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SHORT TERM HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
FORT SMITH AREA DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ARE YIELDING HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES.

TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY ZONAL...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A MID
LVL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND A LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SD. AT
THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NORTH
TX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR TO THE MO BOOTHEEL. A
VERY JUICY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL AIR HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION IN THE MID LVLS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS BROAD ZONE
OF RICH MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR SAID SURFACE
TROUGH/BOUNDARY. MORE WDLY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AS UPPER SYSTEM/JET STREAK PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.

THE NEXT DISCERNIBLE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES
RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THEME OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
KEEP POPS HIGHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THE EURO AND GFS HAVE LATCHED BACK ONTO A MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER WEST DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS ARE IN STORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN A NW FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.

LACY/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  94  74  95 /  40  30  30  30
FSM   75  96  74  95 /  50  30  20  20
MLC   74  96  74  97 /  40  30  20  20
BVO   70  93  70  94 /  40  30  30  30
FYV   70  91  69  91 /  50  30  20  40
BYV   69  90  68  90 /  50  30  20  40
MKO   72  94  72  95 /  50  30  20  20
MIO   70  92  72  92 /  40  30  30  40
F10   73  94  74  96 /  40  30  20  20
HHW   75  97  74  98 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ072-OKZ074-
     OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS..
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS THE AREA... GENERALLY
FROM TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE. INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS... SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE... HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME OF THESE MAY PUSH SEVERE LIMITS AS WELL.

IT REMAINS VERY HOT AND HUMID SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HEAT INDICES
RANGED FROM 100 TO 105 DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT GETS A PUSH TO THE SOUTH MONDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH 105 IN SOME PLACES... MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
608 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ056-057-082345-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-
608 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CRAIG AND NORTHEASTERN NOWATA

AT 608 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HOLLOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW AND CENTRAILIA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3697 9509 3675 9539 3700 9559 3701 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 316DEG 21KT 3704 9547

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ062-063-068-090000-
CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
629 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND EASTERN MAYES

AT 629 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ROSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAKS...LEACH...TWIN OAKS...SCRAPER
AND ROSE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3618 9472 3616 9473 3616 9480 3609 9480
      3598 9490 3617 9517 3628 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 298DEG 16KT 3619 9505

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ057-090030-
CRAIG OK-
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG

AT 639 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF
HOLLOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VINITA...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...
PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET AND CENTRAILIA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3681 9500 3657 9517 3690 9544 3691 9543
      3701 9530 3700 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 318DEG 20KT 3689 9529

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ062-068-090015-
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-
651 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MAYES

AT 652 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
PEGGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PEGGS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3617 9501 3616 9501 3616 9494 3601 9481
      3590 9510 3617 9518 3618 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 336DEG 10KT 3612 9507

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ057-058-063-090045-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN OTTAWA

AT 703 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF WELCH TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF PYRAMID
CORNERS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BERNICE...MIAMI...AFTON...
FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PYRAMID CORNERS...
BLUEJACKET...WELCH...BERNICE STATE PARK AND TWIN BRIDGES STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3682 9469 3656 9489 3678 9521 3696 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 306DEG 24KT 3690 9502 3676 9512

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
719 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

OKZ076-090045-
LE FLORE OK-
719 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN LE FLORE

AT 719 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SHADY POINT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...POTEAU...HOWE...SHADY POINT AND
HEAVENER RUNESTONE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3486 9451 3503 9485 3519 9475 3508 9444
      3496 9445
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 298DEG 15KT 3507 9470