Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

MAIN COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO ABOUT THE 412 CORRIDOR...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. TSRA HAS LARGELY FIZZLED
ALONG THE FRONT...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY. WILL CARRY A VCTS AT MLC/FSM
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...WITH STORMS MAKING A DECENT SOUTHERLY PUSH
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SLIPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST... ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONTAINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END EARLY TUESDAY AS UNSEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN
RECENT FORECASTS... UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INHABIT
MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... KEEPING BOTH
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LATER IN THE WEEK... A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
QUICKLY PULL DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
THURSDAY ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES EASTWARD ALONG
A SURFACE FRONT... GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY MOIST... TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERE... WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LASTING MOST OF THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES IN AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK... WITH
PERHAPS RECORD LOW MAXES AND MINS IN SOME LOCALES. A SLOW WARM-UP
WILL BEGIN FRIDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES RESUMING NORMAL JULY LEVELS
BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
441 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND ALSO IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT A LIMITED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL NEAR
QUARTER SIZE WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AND AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHERE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
AS A WARM FRONT RETURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW BIG CABIN          36.51N 95.26W
07/14/2014  E60 MPH          MAYES              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

OKZ074>076-142345-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
613 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN HASKELL...WESTERN LE FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN LATIMER

AT 613 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
LEQUIRE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LEQUIRE...RED OAK AND FANSHAWE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3490 9488 3488 9515 3512 9512 3513 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 357DEG 9KT 3508 9502

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S ADAIR               36.36N 95.27W
07/14/2014  M58 MPH          MAYES              OK   MESONET

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ARZ020-029-150000-
FRANKLIN AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
624 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND EASTERN SEBASTIAN

AT 623 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
URSULA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
DEVELOPING JUST TO ITS WEST NEAR BLOOMER. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...LIBERTY...CROSSROADS...MILLTOWN...CHARLESTON...BRANCH...URS
ULA...PETER
PENDER...VESTA...MEG...GREENWOOD...LAVACA...DAYTON...WASHBURN...BURNV
ILLE...FORT CHAFFEE...BLOOMER...CENTRAL CITY AND ETNA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3532 9390 3523 9392 3523 9402 3514 9403
      3514 9413 3510 9414 3507 9423 3502 9422
      3501 9423 3533 9429 3546 9388 3539 9380
      3532 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 324DEG 10KT 3531 9405

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
656 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ARZ020-029-150045-
FRANKLIN AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
656 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SEBASTIAN

AT 656 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD TO 3 MILES WEST OF FORT CHAFFEE TO 3 MILES
EAST OF FORT CHAFFEE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...LIBERTY...CROSSROADS...MILLTOWN...CHARLESTON...GREENWOOD...
ARKOLA...HUNTINGTON...DAYTON...WITCHERVILLE...WASHBURN...BURNVILLE...
EXCELSIOR...MANSFIELD...FORT CHAFFEE...JENNY LIND AND BLOOMER.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
POSSIBLY SOME PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.

LAT...LON 3523 9392 3523 9402 3514 9403 3513 9404
      3514 9413 3510 9414 3507 9423 3501 9423
      3504 9435 3528 9432 3531 9408 3531 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 015DEG 9KT 3521 9425 3522 9411
          3521 9401 3523 9390

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
821 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

OKZ049-150145-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
821 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 821 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KELLOND...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ANTLERS...MOYERS...KOSOMA AND
KELLOND.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3421 9579 3436 9578 3439 9560 3416 9552
      3416 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 348DEG 10KT 3428 9568

LACY