Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AS AN MCS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN MCS IS IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING ACROSS KANSAS AT THIS TIME
AND THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY
UNTIL THEY REACH OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 75. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THE STRONGER STORMS AND
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE MORE SOUTH THAN EAST LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

HAVE SPED UP THE PROGRESS OF THE MCS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS LATE TONIGHT AND LOWER POPS
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL BUT NOTHING MAJOR.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
510 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 1 AM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 1 AM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY WST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 1 AM.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE THIS EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS AND WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CREATE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH CHANCES
TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE GREATER THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY
BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALLS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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