Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE TEMPO/VCTS GROUPS FOR TIMING ACROSS THE CWA.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE
DAY...THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY PRECIP. HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) HAS DEVELOPED
AS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
AS IS TRACKING EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. EXPECT STORMS
TO REACH ERN OK AFTER 05-06Z AND INTO WRN AR
AROUND 08-10Z. HAVE ADJUST POPS DOWN THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING...THEN RAMPED THEM UP TURNING THE
06-12Z TIMEFRAME.

CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  79  66  79 /  80  60  60  60
FSM   70  78  65  79 /  80  80  50  70
MLC   71  80  67  81 /  70  80  60  70
BVO   64  79  64  77 /  60  50  60  60
FYV   65  74  62  74 /  80  70  50  60
BYV   63  73  60  74 /  60  70  40  60
MKO   68  78  65  78 /  80  70  60  60
MIO   63  78  62  75 /  50  50  50  60
F10   68  79  67  79 /  80  70  60  60
HHW   72  84  68  82 /  50  50  60  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
        ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO
EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY
MORNING...ALONG WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.  FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN.  YET ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX IS LIKELY
ON SUNDAY...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.  THIS WILL REMAIN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD...AND FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BECOME LIKELY.
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
BY MID NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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