Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE FROPA LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ENDING TSRA AT EACH LOCATION. MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN TSRA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO
A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS PARTS
OF ECNTRL AND SE OK LATE TONIGHT. HAVE OBSERVED SOME SPORADIC 35-45
MPH GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
WILL BUILD INTO NE OK LATER THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP S
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
POSE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN AR
WHERE THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT E OF THE FORECAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN BY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
WILL REMAIN LIMITED. BREEZY AND WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE DRYLINE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FAR WRN OK BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH OUR FORECAST AREA SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
EXPECT OUR REGION TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH HAVE LEFT
SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR WRN SECTIONS. BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
BY SUNDAY AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
THE DRYLINE DRIVES EWD INTO CNTRL OK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXTREME
INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

ECMWF/GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. PERIODS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
446 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE MORNING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TO THE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE MOVED
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS.

THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DECREASES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
           HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WIDESPREAD AND HIGH
END SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. TORNADOES...POSSIBLY
STRONG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAYS STORMS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND
OUTLOOKS IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE OVERALL THREAT LEVEL AND
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE REFINED LEADING UP TO SUNDAY.

BESIDES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...INCREASED FIRE DANGER
WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ARZ010-011-019-020-029-OKZ076-241515-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN
AR-WASHINGTON AR-
939 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 937 AM CDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES NORTH OF VINEY GROVE TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNTAINBURG TO
CROSSROADS WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE FAYETTEVILLE AND FORT
SMITH AREAS AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES WILL BE AFFECTED.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3538 9370 3536 9375 3540 9380 3532 9381
      3532 9390 3523 9393 3522 9402 3513 9404
      3514 9413 3510 9414 3507 9422 3499 9422
      3491 9446 3555 9442 3608 9448 3615 9379
      3576 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 258DEG 26KT 3607 9430 3562 9416
          3511 9414

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1012 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ADAIR                   36.44N 95.27W
04/24/2014  E75.00 MPH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRONG WIND UPROOTED SEVERAL TREES...DAMAGED SEVERAL
            BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS...AND BLEW DOWN POWER LINES/POLES
            SOUTH AND WEST OF ADAIR.

&&

EJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-020-241600-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
1013 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     EASTERN BENTON...CARROLL...MADISON AND EASTERN WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     EASTERN FRANKLIN

AT 1012 AM CDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF GATEWAY TO 3 MILES EAST OF HINDSVILLE TO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ETNA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

LAT...LON 3612 9347 3609 9347 3608 9344 3597 9345
      3587 9352 3577 9351 3576 9369 3538 9370
      3536 9375 3540 9380 3532 9381 3532 9390
      3524 9394 3573 9397 3576 9389 3576 9397
      3613 9399 3650 9413 3650 9330 3612 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 259DEG 26KT 3654 9390 3615 9381
          3535 9383

LACY