Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Tulsa, OK

318 
WWUS54 KTSA 051316
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

OKC035-105-113-131-147-051345-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-140605T1345Z/
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
816 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...
NORTHERN ROGERS...EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...NOWATA AND WESTERN CRAIG
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

AT 814 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH COFFEYVILLE TO 8 MILES WEST OF NOWATA TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF BARNSDALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...SOUTH COFFEYVILLE...AVANT...
  LENAPAH...DELAWARE...RAMONA...NOWATA...WATOVA...TALALA...
  CENTRALIA...NEW ALLUWE...CENTRAILIA...HOLLOW...OOLOGAH...WHITE OAK
  AND CHELSEA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 9525 3642 9573 3657 9648 3683 9601
      3700 9599 3700 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1316Z 278DEG 43KT 3700 9564 3671 9574
          3647 9615

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KBVO... KXNA... AND KFYV WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. OTHER SITES
MAY BE AFFECTED TO A LESSER EXTENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST SITES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
OVER THE NEXT WEEK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

MCS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO RACE
EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A RELATIVELY HIGH POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EACH NIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS WITH THE ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION. THE EXACT LOCATION/TIMING OF EACH MCS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO
PINPOINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL GET
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH A BIT QUICKER THAN INDICATED BY MOST MODELS.
RELATIVELY HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOME MODELS SHOW THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
VICINITY.

THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
OVERALL THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES IS LOW FOR THE
NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WRECKING HAVOC.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
509 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE MORNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY GETTING ORGANIZED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH A PORTION
OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A STRONG
SYSTEM AND WILL BRING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS, AS WELL AS HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT... ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING WIND SHEAR... TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING CONCERN... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
718 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

OKZ054-059-051300-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
718 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 718 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIGHEART TO 18 MILES WEST OF
BURBANK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...BURBANK...
APPERSON...WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...HULAH...
RALSTON...WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK AND SUNSET LAKE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3685 9600 3638 9684 3647 9704
      3651 9703 3656 9691 3658 9690 3659 9692
      3659 9705 3665 9706 3670 9698 3669 9695
      3676 9687 3675 9683 3679 9676 3682 9676
      3701 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 1218Z 270DEG 26KT 3697 9636 3661 9702

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
719 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

OKZ054-059-051300-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
719 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 719 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BIGHEART TO 18 MILES WEST OF
BURBANK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...SHIDLER...FAIRFAX...BURBANK...
APPERSON...WEBB CITY...PEARSONIA...BIGHEART...FORAKER...HULAH...
GRAINOLA...RALSTON...WAH SHA SHE STATE PARK AND SUNSET LAKE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3685 9600 3638 9684 3647 9704
      3651 9703 3656 9691 3658 9690 3659 9692
      3659 9705 3665 9706 3670 9698 3669 9695
      3676 9687 3675 9683 3679 9676 3701 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 270DEG 26KT 3697 9635 3661 9701