Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Tulsa, OK

820 
WWUS54 KTSA 272331
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

OKC041-115-272341-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-140428T0000Z/
DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
631 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA AND
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3685 9463 3655 9461 3640 9476 3649 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 213DEG 33KT 3662 9470

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE SEVERITY/EVOLUTION
OVER THE NEXT 8 HOURS...AS WELL AS FIRE WEATHER/WINDS BEHIND THE
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE.

LARGE UPPER VORT HAS EJECTED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. A
STRONG UPPER JET...WITH ROOTS CLEAR BACK INTO THE PACIFIC WILL BE
NOSING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SE OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS COMPLEX...MAINLY DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER ARKANSAS. THIS CONVECTION HAS
LEFT A BOUNDARY BEHIND THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS BACK
TO NEAR FORT SMITH. AS STORMS DEVELOP DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE AND MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS GIVEN
IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILES...THEY WILL HEAD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 70 DEWPOINTS AND BACKED SURFACE FLOW...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE LOW LVL HELICITIES AND THUS TORNADO POTENTIAL...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED.

BEHIND THE FRONT/DRYLINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 40 MPH
AS DEEP MIXING IS BRINGING DOWN STRONG GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 00Z. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HAVE PLUMMETED DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT TO THE
W AND NW OF TULSA...AND THUS A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THRU 03Z.

THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP THRU THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL END STORM CHANCES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

A LARGE MID LVL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS THE
UPPER JET COLLAPSES AND BUCKLES...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST
THRU MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS
WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND PARENT UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE AS COOL AIR ACCOMPANIES THESE FEATURES.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  76  49  63 /  10  20  10  20
FSM   58  76  49  68 /  70  20  10  10
MLC   54  77  49  68 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   50  74  45  61 /  10  20  10  30
FYV   53  72  44  62 /  70  20  20  20
BYV   56  72  46  63 /  70  20  20  20
MKO   53  75  47  65 /  30  20  10  20
MIO   52  72  45  61 /  30  20  20  30
F10   53  76  48  65 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   56  78  51  71 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ059.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
438 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
438 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING FOR FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EAST OF A WELCH TO CROWDER TO BOSWELL OKLAHOMA LINE
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THAT INCLUDES STRONG
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL TO AROUND BASEBALL SIZE AND
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH IS FORECAST INTO THIS
EVENING. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
A WELCH TO CROWDER TO BOSWELL OKLAHOMA LINE. THE TIME WINDOW OF
GREATEST THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM.

THE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE STORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH
THESE STORMS...INCLUDING STRONG LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...HAIL TO
BASEBALL SIZE AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 80 MILES AN
HOUR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
         HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY WILL AGAIN RESULT
IN A LIMITED TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
514 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             HONOBIA                 34.54N 94.94W
04/27/2014  E0.88 INCH       PUSHMATAHA         OK   PUBLIC

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
531 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             3 E HONOBIA             34.54N 94.88W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
544 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ARZ029-OKZ072-076-272330-
LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
544 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 544 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BOKOSHE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...COTTONWOOD...GANS...MULDROW...ROLAND...
MOFFETT...MILTON...PANAMA...BOKOSHE...SPIRO...SCULLYVILLE...BRADEN...
COWLINGTON...ARKOMA...MILL CREEK AND FORT SMITH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3507 9479 3519 9493 3521 9492 3521 9482
      3530 9482 3554 9454 3545 9444 3541 9444
      3543 9442 3538 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 226DEG 32KT 3520 9478

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             4 E BIG CEDAR           34.65N 94.58W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TORNADO          QUAPAW                  36.95N 94.79W
04/27/2014                   OTTAWA             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIRE STATION DESTROYED. NORTH END OF TOWN SUSTAINED HEAVY
            DAMAGE.

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             HODGEN                  34.84N 94.63W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

LACY