Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

Anderson County, KS, Brown County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

136 
WWUS43 KTOP 032110
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
310 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-041215-
/O.CON.KTOP.WS.W.0001.140204T0600Z-140205T1200Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
310 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. 

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
  EVENING...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF NORTH
  CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
  HOURS OF TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 4 AM AND
  4 PM TUESDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END
  TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
  RANGE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
  HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF A
  LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO SENECA.

* WINDS...EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
  NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SPEED INCREASES ARE ANTICIPATED
  TUESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 35 MPH. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
  AND DRIFTING SNOW TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
  THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. GUSTY
  WINDS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BLOWING SNOW AND
  DRIFTING SNOW. AS A RESULT...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AND
  DANGEROUS. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO DANGEROUSLY COLD LEVELS NORTH
  AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
  MORNING...RANGING FROM 13 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

324 
WWUS43 KTOP 041021
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-041800-
/O.CON.KTOP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140205T1200Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
421 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
  THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
  I-70...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
  AND WILL AT TIMES EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR. BY AFTERNOON...THE
  HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
  KANSAS TURNPIKE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  THE EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
  ENDING AROUND SUNRISE.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6
  TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
  SOUTHEAST OF CONCORDIA BUT NORTH OF I-35 EXPECTED TO TOTAL UP
  TO A FOOT OF SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...WITH
  GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN TURN OUT OF THE
  NORTH AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
  WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY BE LESS THAN A
  QUARTER OF A MILE.

* WIND CHILL...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO DANGEROUSLY COLD LEVELS
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES
  BELOW ZERO.

* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
  SOME ROADS BECOMING NEARLY IMPASSABLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE
  REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS A
  RESULT...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS...AND NEARLY
  IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD QUICKLY
  CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR ANYONE EXPOSED TO THE COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

553 
WWUS43 KTOP 041657
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1057 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050100-
/O.CON.KTOP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140205T1200Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
1057 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* TIMING...MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW WILL DOMINATE THE
  REMAINDER OF THE BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL SLOWLY
  DIMINISH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM
  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
  WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME AREAS OF NEAR A FOOT POSSIBLE. SOME
  OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE AREA FROM
  NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO SOUTHEAST OF THE CONCORDIA AND
  WASHINGTON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...WITH
  GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN TURN OUT OF THE
  NORTH AND GUST 25 TO 35 MPH OVERNIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
  WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY BE LESS THAN A
  QUARTER OF A MILE.

* WIND CHILL...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO DANGEROUSLY COLD LEVELS 
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES 
  BELOW ZERO. 

* IMPACTS...ROAD CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 
  SOME ROADS BECOMING NEARLY IMPASSABLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE 
  REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS A 
  RESULT...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS...AND 
  NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS 
  COULD QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE FOR ANYONE 
  EXPOSED TO THE COLD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

397 
WWUS43 KTOP 042154
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050600-
/O.CON.KTOP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140205T1200Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
354 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* TIMING...MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
  THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
  OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SOME BRIEF SLEET AND
  FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  INTERSTATE 35 INTO SUNSET. 

* TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
  10 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME AREAS OF NEAR A FOOT
  POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
  AREA FROM NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35 TO SOUTHEAST OF THE
  CONCORDIA AND WASHINGTON. ANY SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
  ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 MPH THIS
  AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
  MPH OVERNIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WILL RESULT FROM
  THESE WINDS...WITH VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY FALLING TO AROUND AN
  EIGHTH OF A MILE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW. 

* WIND CHILL...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO DANGEROUSLY COLD LEVELS 
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES 
  BELOW ZERO. 

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
  CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS
  A RESULT...TRAVEL BE DIFFICULT...AND NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES.
  THE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA
  AND FROSTBITE FOR ANYONE EXPOSED TO THE COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

951 
WWUS43 KTOP 050324
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
924 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051200-
/O.CON.KTOP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140205T1200Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
924 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
  SNOW THAT HAS ACCUMULATED ON THE GROUND WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW
  THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. 

* TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN
  REPORTED OF 6 TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WILL RESULT
  FROM THESE WINDS...WITH VISIBILITIES HALF A MILE AT TIMES OR
  LESS.

* WIND CHILL...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO DANGEROUSLY COLD LEVELS 
  TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES 
  BELOW ZERO. 

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL CAUSE
  REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS A
  RESULT...TRAVEL BE DIFFICULT...AND NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES.
  THE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA
  AND FROSTBITE FOR ANYONE EXPOSED TO THE COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

073 
WWUS43 KTOP 051157
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014


KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051800-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KTOP.WC.Y.0005.140205T1200Z-140205T1800Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CONCORDIA...
CLAY CENTER...MANHATTAN...ABILENE...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...
LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
557 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING. 

* TIMING...THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
  MORNING HOURS...WARMING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
  CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* WIND CHILL...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD THROUGH
  THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM -13 TO -20.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXPOSED SKIN CAN SUFFER FROM FROSTBITE IN A VERY SHORT TIME...SO
DRESS ADEQUATELY. BE SURE TO WEAR LAYERED CLOTHING...A HAT...AND
GLOVES TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE DANGERS OF FROSTBITE.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 345 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014

Early this morning surface high pressure was situated over the
region, resulting in clear skies and light and variable winds. With
these conditions in place, temperatures had dropped into the teens
and even low single digits from central to northeast Kansas where
the most snowpack was present. Today, this surface high will shift
east of the area, resulting in light winds out of the
south-southeast through this afternoon. These light southerly winds
will lead to some weak warm air advection into the region today,
with afternoon highs reaching into the middle 30s over central and
east central Kansas. However, expect temperatures to be a bit cooler
over northern Kansas due to the higher snowpack present, with highs
likely only reaching into the upper 20s/low 30s. Water vapor imagery
showed the mid-level low continuing to dive southward toward the
Baja peninsula this morning, with models having it pivot
northeastward across the desert southwest today. Ahead of this
advancing shortwave, water vapor imagery also showed a few embedded
weaker waves along the eastern edge of the deepening mid-level
trough. These weaker waves were tracking northeastward across
Colorado this morning toward Kansas. Models show increasing
mid-level cloud cover late this morning through this afternoon from
the approaching waves. If this cloud cover moves in faster, then
high temperatures may be a bit too warm.

ACH

Mid Term...(This evening through Thursday morning)

A substantial winter storm is likely to impact most, if not all, of
the forecast area and much of the surrounding region during this
period. This storm system is currently located over southern
California, and is forecast to take on a negative tilt and deepen
as the heart of the upper trough tracks from southern New Mexico
into southwest Missouri. The dynamics and amount of forcing for
vertical motion with this storm system, in both magnitude and
duration, are rather impressive, and will result in widespread
moderate to heavy precipitation totals by the time the storm is
over. Model guidance has been remarkably consistent from run-to-
run and model-to-model with this storm system, perhaps lending to
higher than average confidence in the forecast. Current forecast
is for snowfall totals across the entire area in the 6 to 10 inch
range with some areas potentially seeing a foot of snow. Following
are some forecast details regarding specific periods.

Tonight:  Isentropic upslope flow will increase in magnitude through
the day today and into the evening hours. This along with moisture
advection will lead to a gradual moistening of the column,
particularly the mid and upper levels into this evening while a
shallow layer just above the surface is forecast to remain somewhat
dry. Meanwhile, nearly all model guidance is suggesting the
development of weak to moderate frontogenesis near 700 hPa across
north central KS into southern NE by late afternoon, and keeping it
nearly stationary through the evening. This introduces a point of
uncertainty in whether or not the lift will be sufficient to
overcome the dry layer in north central KS by early evening. It
seems to be a possibility, and if so, snow could begin as early
as 8 PM and perhaps even accumulate a bit before midnight. After
midnight, lift and deep moisture increase across the entire area
from SW to NE. Expect another band of moderate to strong
frontogenesis to develop into the forecast area by morning, with
broad areas of CSI or even weak CI contributing to locally
enhanced snow rates. Expect an area of snow to develop northeast
out of south central KS, as a snow band intensifies in north
central KS and near the Nebraska border as well. All of northeast
KS should see snow falling before 6 AM.

Tuesday:  The snowfall will peak during the day on Tuesday, with the
peak expected to last several hours. Vertical motion seems to be
maximized from around 4 AM through around 6 PM. Expect moderate snow
with rates around 0.5" per hour for essentially this entire period
while pockets and bands of heavier snowfall occasionally up to 1"
per hour fall as well. The heavier snow rates will likely be
associated with periods of CSI and CI which may be maximized in
the morning hours, and also with an expected heavier band of snow
influenced by strong mid level frontogenesis throughout the event.
If there is a limiting factor in the snow rates, it would seem to
be that upper portions of the troposphere may not always be
completely saturated with condensation pressure deficits in the
5-15 mb range. The lift will be strong enough, and saturation deep
enough through the snow growth layer, that these deficits are easily
overcome and should result in only slightly lesser amounts than
may otherwise be possible in a perfect set up. Expect snow ratios
to increase from around 12:1 tonight to closer to 14:1 by Tuesday
afternoon when some of the heavier precip is falling.

Tuesday night:  A bit of a TROWAL is expected to develop with this
storm system during this period, and is currently forecast to track
directly over northeast Kansas. Meanwhile, while there will be
plenty of cold advection in the low levels, significant dry
advection is not forecast, and the changing temperature profile will
result in an increasingly deep saturated dendritic snow growth zone,
possibly approaching 10,000 feet in depth overnight. So, while the
vertical forcing will wane a bit overnight, the snow to liquid
ratios will increase into the upper teens. Expect light to moderate
snow to linger through much of the night, waning during the early
morning hours as the upper system departs. The other factor
overnight will be increasing wind speeds. Tuesday afternoon wind
gusts up to 25 mph will increase with gusts to 30 mph becoming
likely overnight. The pressure gradient is pretty impressive with a
very strong high pressure area building in, supporting these wind
speeds, but luckily there is not a particularly strong low level
cold jet accompanying the back side of the storm system so do not
expect gusts to exceed 35 mph...at least not frequently.

Wed - Wed nt:  Blowing snow will linger into Wednesday morning as
gusts continue up to 30 mph. Could also see some flurries but the
amount of lift really decreases by sunrise. Some model guidance
indicates shallow low level vertical motion coincident with the
dendritic growth zone, but unsure of the validity of this feature so
for now have a dry forecast for this period. Temperatures will be
quite cold with strong cold advection and the coldest wind chills
should range from -5 in east central KS to -18 near the Nebraska
border. Wednesday night has the potential to be very cold, and some
raw models have suggested temps in the negative teens. However,
these same models are indicating an inversion only 100-200 feet deep
accompanied by 5-8 mph winds overnight which would suggest some
mixing of slightly warmer air. Cloud cover may also be on the
increase overnight which would keep things a bit warmer. Opted
toward the "warm" side of guidance with lows ranging from -5 to -11.
These temps with the 5 mph winds would put minimum wind chills in
the -17 to -24 range across the entire area. It will certainly be
cold but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in this aspect of the
forecast.

Barjenbruch

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014

For Thursday, models show a strong area of surface high pressure
centered over the Central Plains, with northerly winds bringing much
colder air into the region. By Thursday morning, temperatures will
likely be below zero with wind chill values possibly dropping into
the advisory category at 15 to 20 degrees below zero. With this
cold airmass in place and a fresh snowpack present, high
temperatures may only reach into the single digits.

By Thursday, models show a weak mid-level trough over the Rockies
with a few weak embedded shortwaves approaching the region Thursday
into Friday before a stronger shortwave trough advances into the
region Saturday night into Sunday. There is still a great deal of
uncertainty with the tracking and timing of any precipitation,
especially from these earlier, weaker waves. Even with the stronger
shortwave that moves through over the weekend, there are
discrepancies in how quickly it passes over the region, making it
difficult to pinpoint a period in which precipitation chances are
higher. So due to this uncertainty, still have a bit of a
broad-brush of slight to chance PoPs Thursday through Saturday
night. Do not anticipate precipitation to develop during that entire
period, but there certainly is a chance for two, if not three,
separate waves to track over the region. With the frigid conditions
remaining in place and highs only reaching into the teens and 20s
from the end of the week through the weekend, any precipitation
should be in the form of snow. Cannot rule out the potential that a
few more inches of accumulating snowfall will be possible across
parts of the forecast area through the end of the weekend.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. High clouds will
increase today across the terminals. southeast winds will increase
to 8 to 11 KTS by afternoon and become easterly this evening. Stratus
with VFR ceilings will develop through the evening hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Wednesday
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...ACH
MID TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...ACH
AVIATION...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032200-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
350 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...FALLING DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY AND COMING TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF THE SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BRING
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK...MAINLY
IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.